Houston Rockets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Pick – February 4, 2024

HOUSTON ROCKETS VS. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES EXPERT PICK – FEBRUARY 4, 2024 –Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

After our earlier look at the Clippers vs. Heat, one of the other games on tap from Sunday’s slate features the Houston Rockets (23-25 SU, 25-21-22 ATS) taking on the Minnesota Timberwolves (34-15 SU, 24-24-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, February 4, 2024

Time: 7:00 PM ET

Where: Target Center

Location: Minneapolis, MN

TV: BSN and Space City Home Network

Houston Rockets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Houston Rockets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Rockets Avenge Earlier Season Loss To Minnesota?

 Houston Rockets Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 113.9 PPG – 21^ST
• Offensive Efficiency: 114.0 points per 100 possessions – 20^TH
• Scoring Defense: 112.3 PPG – 9^TH  
• Defensive Efficiency: 112.4 points per 100 possessions – 6^TH

The bad news for the Rockets is if the season ended today, they would not even qualify for one of the play-in tournament spots. The good news is they enter this contest against Minnesota on the heels of a 135-106 win over the Toronto Raptors.

Rookie Cam Whitmore led the team in scoring with 25 points. He also tallied six rebounds and two steals.

Alperen Sengun turned in a solid performance that included 24 points, 13 boards, and eight dimes.  The team’s other rookie, Amen Thompson, contributed 19 points, seven rebounds, and four assists.

Houston led by a whopping 30 points through 36 minutes of action, which allowed them to rest their starters for the final 12 minutes.

“They’re a team that wants to get out in transition but can get hurt on the other end,” Udoka said. “When we got stops and got out and ran the last few games it’s been a recipe for success.”

Houston limited Toronto to 44 percent shooting from the field and 33 percent from beyond the arc. If the Rockets can duplicate the defensive intensity they played with against the Raptors, it will position them to keep pace with one of the top-tier teams in the Western Conference.

Can The Timberwolves Learn From Past Mistakes?

Minnesota Timberwolves Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 113.0 PPG – 22^ND
• Offensive Efficiency: 115.1 points per 100 possessions – 18^TH    
• Scoring Defense: 107.0 PPG – 1^ST
• Defensive Efficiency: 109.1 points per 100 possessions – 1^ST

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves enter this tilt tied for the best record in the Western Conference and the second-best record in the league. Additionally, they have posted six wins across their last 10 outings.

In their most recent outing, Minnesota suffered a disappointing 108-106 loss to the Orlando Magic on Friday night. Rudy Gobert – who is one of the odds-on favorites to win the league’s Defensive Player of the Year award — finished with 22 points on just seven shot attempts. He also hauled in 16 rebounds and blocked two shots.

Anthony Edwards also scored 22 points and handed out five assists. Karl Anthony-Towns contributed 19 points and collected three rebounds.

While Minnesota is ranked first in points allowed and efficiency, the team’s offense produced just 18 points in the game’s final 12 minutes. Something they will need to correct moving forward.

“We struggled to get into our stuff. They did a good job with their physicality, their ball pressure, and we didn’t really do a good job of battling back on that front,” Wolves coach Chris Finch said.

On the heels of a game they should have won, the Timberwolves’ top-ranked defense will be tested against a Rockets squad that is coming off a dominating performance in its previous outing.

Now that we have all the preliminary stuff out of the way, let us look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Timberwolves opened as a 7.5-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has not changed for the home team. Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
• Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five matchups against Minnesota.
• In their last five road matchups against the Timberwolves, the Rockets are 1-4 against the spread.
• Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last six February games.
• Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last five Sunday games.

Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves (-7.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 215.5 points. The line has recently moved to 222 points. Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone OVER four times in the Rockets’ last five games.
• The OVER total has prevailed five times in Houston’s last matchups against Western Conference opponents.
• In Minnesota’s last seven matchups against the Rockets, the OVER total cashed in five times.

Prediction: OVER 222 points

Player Prop Bets

The key player to watch for the road team is Alperen Sengun. He currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 20.5 points and -110 odds of finishing with less than 20.5 points.

Here is a glance to see how his numbers compare to the projected points total for this matchup.

• On the season, Sengun is averaging 21.7 points per outing.
• In 21 road contests this season, he is averaging 21.9 PPG.
• Sengun has played against Western Conference opponents 28 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 21.8 points per outing.
• Sengun has played five times on a Sunday this season. In those contests, he has averaged 21.8 points per game.
• Over the past 10 games, he is averaging 21.9 PPG, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch.

Going with the “over” for Sengun is the best option based on the above trends.

Prediction: Alperen Sengun OVER 20.5 points

The main guy to watch for the home team is Anthony Edwards. He currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 26.5 points and -110 odds of scoring less than 26.5 points.

Here is a closer look at how Edwards’ numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• On the season, Edwards is averaging 25.5 points per outing.
• In 22 home contests this season, he is averaging 25.8 PPG.
• Edwards has played against Western Conference opponents 29 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 24.7 points per outing.
• He has played four times on a Sunday this season. In those contests, he has averaged 31.5 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Edwards has averaged 22.7 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup six times.

Prediction: Anthony Edwards UNDER 26.5 points