Horizon Irish Open Betting Preview
HORIZON IRISH OPEN BETTING PREVIEW – We had some guys sniffing around last week in the Euro Masters, but it never really felt like they were in serious contention. The younger Fitzpatrick was our best bet, but Ludvig Aberg was just too good as the elder Fitzpatricks stumbled into the clubhouse.
We’re onto another week with the DP World Tour while the guys on the PGA Tour enjoy a brief offseason before events begin again next week.
For this iteration of the Irish Open, I’ll be looking at guys who have excelled in this tournament in the past and I’ll be looking for guys who have solid form coming into this week. Ideally, we’ll be able to find guys who can combine history and current form to get our best wagers for the week.
But first, a little bit about the K Club.
The Course
The Palmer Course at the Kildare Hotel and Golf Club (K Club), has played host to a number of tournaments throughout the last 30 years or so, but the most relevant and recent time it has hosted a tournament is in 2016 when it last played host to the Irish Open.
Measuring 7,350 yards and playing to a par 72, the most notable feature that stands out is the need for finding fairways off the tee. This course isn’t exactly insanely long, and a lot of the leaderboard from 2016 was comprised of guys who are generally steady ball strikers, but not necessarily overpowering (except the champion of that event, Rory McIlroy).
This week, I’ll be paying special attention to guys who drive the ball well. There’s water in play on many of the holes from the tee, and the fairways have a decent amount of undulation to them.
Aside from that, it’s worth factoring into your handicapping that the greens will be poa annua, likely running on the slower side.
When they played this event in 2016, Rory was the only player to finish in double digits under par. I’d expect this course to play pretty tough this year as well, so you can also look to target grinders who tend to be more competitive on tougher courses.
The Field
The big headliner is, of course, Rory McIlroy (+300). At this point, he’s in the conversation for the best player in the world, so he’s always a threat to win, especially on a course where he’s had past success. At those prices though, he’s a hard pass.
After that we have a smattering of Irish, UK, and Commonwealth talent on the odds board with the likes of Tyrrell Hatton (+1000), Min Woo Lee (+1800), Adam Scott (+2000), and Shane Lowry (+2500).
I’ll be looking elsewhere to try and hunt down some winners at a little bit more generous odds. Let’s get to those.
The Picks
Adrian Meronk (+2200)
Absolutely devastating for him to get snubbed for the Ryder Cup team. He made a really strong case for inclusion and he’s obviously hurt to be missing out, judging by recent interviews.
He’s the defending champ for this week, albeit his win came at a different venue. There’s clearly some comfort here.
He wasn’t a real threat last week, but overall his iron game looked pretty strong en route to a 13th. He should be one of the better players off the tee in this field and he’s been hitting a ton of greens in regulation.
I don’t love narratives, but wouldn’t it be awesome for him to defend his title here and show Luke Donald what he missed out on by not selecting him for the Ryder Cup team.
Billy Horschel (+3000)
We’ve come a long way since he was crying after shooting an 84 while attempting his title defense at the Memorial this summer. Somehow, he’s managed to pull his game together lately.
His season-long woes were such that even with a 13th at the 3M and a 4th at the Wyndham to close the season, he still couldn’t qualify for the PGA postseason. So, we’re getting a guy who was playing pretty well to close out his season, coming into this tournament after a little rest.
His game has traveled well in the past when he’s played DP World events across the pond, finishing in the top-1o three times at the BMW PGA Championship.
There isn’t a ton of course history for these guys at the K Club, so I’m mostly just looking for guys who seem comfortable on that side of the pond, and are playing well. He checks both boxes.
This would be a massive win for him after one of the — if not the most — difficult seasons as a professional.
The Longshots
Eddie Pepperell (+6000)
I’ve seen his name pop up everywhere in previews this week and it makes a lot of sense. If he wins this week, every degenerate on golf betting Twitter (or X, as we call it now) will be rejoicing and I’ll be among them.
He finished 3rd at the end of August in the ISPS Handa World Invitational in Northern Ireland, so the form has been good around these parts. He’s also coming off an 8th in last week’s European Masters.
The form is outrageous and he’s had three top-10 finishes in this event, including a playoff loss. He finished 8th when this tournament was last played at the K Club, and I’m buying into his current form, course fit, and history.
He does everything needed to be awesome here and his SG: Approach numbers jump off the page in his most recent starts.
Tom McKibbin (+9000)
Things are starting to get a little dark with the long shots now, but I can think of worse angles than an up and coming youngster from Northern Ireland winning this thing.
He hits it plenty long enough to compete here and when his irons are cooperating, he’s proven he can win on this tour. He’s made the cut in his last three starts following a slow stretch in the wake of his victory at the Porsche European Open in June.
At this price, I’ll toss some beer money on a player who hasn’t reached his ceiling yet.
Todd Clements (+30000)
This line is just disrespectful to my guy. He won two weeks ago in the Czech Republic, and he’s getting absolutely zero credit from bookmakers that he can add another win.
I’m not going to sit here and tell you he’s the model of consistency. He is not. What I am going to say is that he’s shown us recently that when things are clicking he can win. At these odds, I’m going to be a sucker and take a shot with the Englishman to bag another trophy before the year is over.
