Heat vs. Nuggets NBA Finals Game 5 Preview and Prediction

HEAT VS NUGGETS NBA FINALS GAME 5 PREVIEW AND PREDICTION – JUNE 11, 2023 — Good morning basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA finals playoff coverage here at Godzilla Wins. Today we have the No. 8 seed Miami Heat trying to stay alive against the No. 1 seed Denver Nuggets. 

Will the Nuggets end the series or will the Heat find a way to extend the series to six games. Here is a look at which team has the edge going into Game 5 and why.

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The Odds

Tipoff

When: Monday, June 11, 2023 at 8:30 PM CT

Where: Ball Arena, Denver CO

TV: ABC

Public Money: Denver, 70%

Public Bets: Denver, 50%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of June 11, 2023

How We Got Here – Series Recap

As they had done in each of the previous playoff series, Miami notched a road win against the Nuggets, beating them by 111-108 margin in Game 2. However, Denver came out with a sense of urgency, playing like a team that was down 0-2. 

Both Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic posted 30-point triple-doubles, enabling the Nuggets to reclaim the home court advantage. They pounded the Heat on the glass (58-33) and they outscored Miami by a 60-34 margin in points in the paint. Miami was hoping to shore up some of those deficiencies in Game 4. 

Unfortunately, that did not happen. Miami held its own on the boards, snagging three more than Denver (37-34). Additionally, the points in the paint between these two teams were nearly identical, as Denver won in this area by a slim 48-46 margin. 

Not only that but Nikola Jokic picked up his fifth foul early in the fourth quarter and had to leave the game at the 9:42 mark. Miami trimmed what was once a 13-point deficit down to five points. But as was the case in Game 3, Denver did not lose its poise, and the road team went on to win the game 108-95, putting them one win from being named NBA champions. 

It should also be noted that Jokic and Murray scored a combined 38 points on 36.1 shooting from the field in Game 4. When you’re playing against a team whose stars are struggling and one of them is in foul trouble, you MUST win these types of games, but Miami failed to take advantage and now this squad is one more loss away from having their spectacular playoff run come to an abrupt close. 

Here are my betting tips for Game 5. 

The Picks

Over/Under

The over/under total opened at 208.5 points, with the over attracting 81 percent of the cash and 51 percent of the tickets. That line has not moved. 

The two teams are averaging 227.3 points per contest while surrendering a combined total of 213.4 points per game. Here are a few trends that suggest why going with the UNDER is the best option.

The UNDER is 6-1 for Miami in the last seven in which they faced an opponent after allowing 100 or more points in their previous contest. Denver scored 108 in Game 3. 

In the Heat’s last five Finals games, the UNDER total has hit four times.

The UNDER holds a 6-2 record for Miami when they are coming off a game in which they lost by a double-digit margin. Denver beat them by 13 points in Game 5. 

Prediction: UNDER 208.5 points

The Spread

The Denver Nuggets opened as a consensus 10-point favorite. That line has moved to (-9). 

Denver is 6-2 against the spread in the last eight times they were coming off a double-digit win in their previous outing. 

The Nuggets have won seven of their last 10 home games against the spread. 

Denver is 35-17 ATS in the last 52 games they were playing against an opponent with a winning record. Miami finished the season 44-38. 

Miami is 1-4 ATS in their last five games played in Denver. 

The Heat are 10-28 ATS in the last 38 meetings between these two ball clubs. 

Prediction: Denver Nuggets (-9)

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch in this contest is Nuggets point guard Jamal Murray. He currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 25.5 points and -125 odds of scoring less than 25.5 points. 

In Game 5, Murray had his worst outing of the Finals. He scored 15 points but missed 12 of his 17 shot attempts. 

Since the Nuggets don’t want to give the Heat any hope of winning the game, I expect them to be the aggressors from the start, which should in turn, pave the way for Murray to have another big-time performance. 

Prediction: Jamal Murray OVER 25.5 point