Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls Head-To-Head & Betting Trends

The Heat have dominated the Bulls over the last two seasons. In 2020-21, the Heat took two of the three regular-season meetings and swept the four-game set last season.

However, the trend has changed this season.

Chicago won both games this season against Miami. This includes a 116-108 victory on opening night and a 113-103 win on Dec. 20. And as these teams lock horns once again, the Bulls hope to sweep the season series to keep their postseason hopes alive.

The Picks

Over/Under

The projected scoring total for this contest is 217. These two teams have a combined scoring average of 221.3 points per contest. Additionally, the average scoring total for games played at the UC this year is 226.8. Here are a few more reasons why I’m going with the OVER in this contest. 

The projected total has gone OVER in five of the Bulls’ last seven games overall and in six of the last eight games in which the Bulls are facing an opponent with an overall winning record. Miami is 38-33.

The OVER has a perfect 4-0 mark for Miami following a game in which they scored more than 100 points. In their previous outing, Miami put up 138 points on Memphis. 

The OVER holds a 6-1 record in the Heat’s last seven games following a win of more than 10 points. Miami won its previous game by 19 points. 

The OVER is 4-1 in Miami’s last five games in which their opponent allowed more than 100 points in their previous outing. The Bulls gave up 131 points against the Timberwolves. The OVER also holds a 6-2 mark in the last eight games and a 4-1 mark in the last five games at the United Center between these two ball clubs. 

The Spread

Miami opened as a consensus three-point favorite. That line has moved to 3.5. 

Miami is 11-28-2 against the spread in the last 41 games following an outright win and 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games overall. 

Miami is 6-17 ATS in the last 23 instances in which they have faced teams that had scored more than 100 points in their previous. The Bulls scored 139 points in their double-overtime win against Minnesota on Friday night. 

In its last 29 games, Miami is 7-21-1 ATS against teams with an overall losing record. The Bulls are five games below .500 (32-37). 

Chicago is 10-2-1 ATS following games in which they’ve scored more than 125 points. They accomplished this feat on Friday night against the Timberwolves. 

The Bulls are 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 contests against teams with a losing road record. Miami is 14-20 on the road this season. Given these trends, I’m going with the Bulls to cover the +3.5-point spread. 

Player Prop Bet

My player to watch from this contest is former Bulls Jimmy Butler. He currently has -125 odds of scoring less than 23.5 and -106 odds of scoring more than 23.5 points.

True, Butler has exceeded the projected points total just twice in his previous five games against Chicago. However, in 11 games he has played against the Bulls, he’s averaged 24.5 points per contest. 

In his last 10 outings, Butler is averaging 25.9 points per contest. And he has exceeded the 23.5 points total in six of his last nine outings. For these reasons, I’d strongly suggest taking the OVER.