Guardians vs. Phillies: Friday, July 26, 2024

GUARDIANS VS. PHILLIES: FRIDAY, JULY 26, 2024 — Are the Phillies starting to feel the pressure? Philadelphia has run away with the NL East, but cracks are starting to appear in what has been a solid team. The Phils come into this series losers of four of their past five series, despite facing some lesser opponents.

Philadelphia made things all the more maddening by sweeping the Dodgers during that stretch. That was the one series the Phils actually won, and it seemed to establish them as the team to beat in the National League. But since then, they’ve played with no consistency.

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Cleveland’s also in a bit of a tough spot lately. The Guardians did get some positive momentum going in a split with Detroit, but the offense really hasn’t been performing well. In seven of Cleveland’s past 10 games, it’s failed to score more than twice. The fact that the Guardians are still comfortably in first speaks to how well the pitching staff has performed this year.

That’s been a staple of Cleveland baseball for the past few seasons. Most Guardians squads excel at pitching, but can’t hit their weight. This Cleveland team has been decent at the plate, but isn’t hitting well at all as of late. Whether Cleveland gets out of its funk will decide if it’s really one of the top teams in the American League.

The Odds

First Pitch

When: Friday, July 26 at 6:40 p.m. EST

Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia

Starting Pitchers: Ben Lively, CLE (8-6, 3.57 ERA, 80 K’s) vs. Cristopher Sanchez, PHI (7-5, 2.97 ERA, 89 K’s)

Public Bets: 89% on Philadelphia

Public Money: 75% on Philadelphia

Guardians vs. Phillies In-Season Trends

Cleveland’s struggles at the plate don’t even tell the whole story of just how bad it’s been on offense lately. The Guardians have been shut out four times in their past 10 games, and they’re averaging just 2.1 runs per game during that stretch. Some nights, it doesn’t matter how good the bullpen does; the bats just haven’t been good enough to win.

The biggest thing working in Philadelphia’s favor has been its incredible home record. The Phillies have gone 37-16 SU at Citizens Bank Park this season, which is why securing home field is so important to their World Series hopes. Since the opening series of the season, the Phillies have not lost consecutive games in Philadelphia.

Players to Watch

Trea Turner has hit safely in four straight games and seven of his past eight overall. He’s mostly been a singles hitter, but he does have some power with 13 homers on the year. Be wary about a bet on him, however. His recent surge means he’s going off at over 1.5 hits to get any kind of value.

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Ben Lively has been remarkable at getting through between five and six innings; no more, no less. In eight of his past nine starts, Lively has recorded somewhere between 15 and 18 outs (the one exception saw him get through four innings against Toronto). Given that Cleveland’s bullpen has been outstanding, Philadelphia has a six-inning clock to get its offense going.

The Prediction

The Phillies are still expected to produce here, in large part because they’ve been so dominant at home. But with neither team playing well and a pair of solid pitchers on the mound, the best bet is probably the total.

Cleveland’s offense isn’t likely to do much against Cristopher Sanchez, and the Phillies are best in the late-game situations. That’s also when the Guardians are at their best, thanks to their excellent bullpen. And that lends itself to an under situation.