Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Expert Pick – February 25, 2023

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Denver Nuggets Head-To-Head & Betting Trends

In the head-to-head competition between these two clubs, a feast-or-famine theme has unfolded over the past few seasons.

In 2020-21, Denver swept the season series 3-0. Last season, Memphis took three of the four contests, albeit by a combined 15-point margin in those victories.

In the lone meeting between these ball clubs back in December, the Nuggets jumped out to a 35-14 lead after the first quarter and never looked back en route to a 105-91 victory, despite Ja Morant’s 35-point performance.

The Picks

Over/Under

The predicted O/U for this contest is 234.5. The two teams are averaging a combined 232.9 points per contest. While this is only 1.6 points less than the predicted total, here are a few reasons you should go with the UNDER.

The UNDER holds a 9-1 mark in Memphis’ last 10 games following a loss. They suffered a five-point loss to the Sixers on Thursday night. 

The UNDER is 6-1 in the Grizzlies’ last seven games when they are playing on one day of rest. Furthermore, the predicted total O/U total has gone UNDER in eight of the last nine games for Memphis when they are playing at home against the Nuggets.

Spread

The Grizzlies opened as a consensus three-point favorite. That line has moved to -2. Here is a look at why you should take Denver and the points. 

The Nuggets have a perfect 4-0 record against the spread after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game. They gave up 109 points to the Cavaliers on Thursday night. 

Denver also holds a 4-0 record ATS when their opponent has given up more than 100 points in their previous contest. Memphis game up 110 points in the team’s recent loss to the Sixers. 

Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games when facing a team in the Northwest division and they are 4-8 ATS in the last 12 games they have played during the month of February. That said, I would strongly suggest taking Denver (+2)

Player Prop Bet(s)

If you’ve been following this column over the past few weeks, you know that I usually give just one player prop bet. However, in this instance, I think it’s worth looking at multiple PPBs in this matchup.

The first one to look at is Nikola Jokic has +125 odds of recording a triple-double. Remember, in the team’s recent win against Cleveland, he posted his 13th triple-double in a 16-game stretch. This marked his 22nd triple-double on the season, and the Nuggets have won each of those 22 games.

The second PPB to look at is Ja Morant. He currently has -106 odds of scoring over 27.5 points in this contest. While his scoring average against Denver is 23.9 points per contest, in his last two games against Denver, he scored 38 and 35 points, respectively. Also, Morant has scored 29 points in seven of his last eight games against western conference opponents.