The Picks
Over/Under
The projected O/U total for this contest opened at 224.5 points. That line has moved to 227 points.
The UNDER has a 20-6 record for Memphis the last 26 times they have faced an opponent with a winning home record. Chicago is 20-18 at the United Center this season.
The UNDER is 11-5 in the Grizzlies’ last 16 road games and 15-7 in the last 22 games in which they’ve played on one day of rest.
The total has gone Under 21 times in Memphis’s last 32 games when their opponent scored more than 100 points in their previous outing. Chicago scored 121 points against Charlotte on Friday night.Â
The UNDER is 13-4 for Chicago in its last 17 games following an against-the-spread win.Â
The total has gone under 19 times in the Bulls’ last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage of more than .600. Memphis has a winning percentage of .636.
The Under is 8-3 in Chicago’s last 11 games following a win of more than 10 points. They defeated the Hornets by 30 points on Friday night.
The Under holds a 19-8 mark in the Bulls’ last 27 games following outings in which they scored more than 100 points. The Bulls scored 121 points against the Hornets.Â
While the two teams are averaging a combined 230.2 points per contest, there is too much data that would suggest going with the UNDER is the way to go in this matchup.Â
The Spread
The Grizzlies opened as a consensus 2.5-point favorite. That line has moved to three points (-3).
Memphis is 5-11 against the spread in its last 16 road contests.Â
The Grizzlies are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games when facing a team that has a winning home record. The Bulls are 20-18.
Memphis is 1-4 ATS in their last five matchups against teams with a losing record, and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.Â
Chicago is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games following an outright win of more than 10 points, and they are 5-2 ATS the last seven times they played on one day of rest.
The Bulls are also 31-15-1 ATS in their last 47 home games against an opponent that had a losing road record. The Grizzlies are 15-22 on the road.Â
Given the trends, I am going with Memphis to win outright, but I expect Chicago to cover the +3 spread.Â
Player Prop Bet
My player to watch from this contest is Grizzlies’ point guard Ja Morant. He currently has -125 odds of scoring more than 24.5 points and -105 odds of scoring less than 24.5 points.Â
In six career games against the Bulls, Morant is averaging 23.8 points per contest. However, in his last three outings against Chicago, he finished with 25, 46, and 34 points, respectively.
Morant is averaging 26 points on the road and his overall scoring average is 26.6 points per contest. Simply put, I am predicting that Morant will exceed the 24.5 points threshold.
