GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — September 29, 2024

GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — September 29, 2024 — Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of several games on Sunday’s slate features the Green Bay Packers (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) hosting the Minnesota Vikings (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, September 29, 2024 @ 1:00 PM ET

Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

TV: CBS

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings — In-Season Stats & Betting Trends

Following their 34-29 loss against the Philadelphia Eagles in the season opener, the Packers have responded with back-to-back wins over the Indianapolis Colts and the Tennessee Titans. In their 30-14 victory over the Titans last week, Malik Willis put together another solid outing with his new team. He was 13 of 19 for 202 yards with one touchdown and no picks.

“What he’s been able to do is, I’ve never seen something like this,” LaFleur said via ESPN. So, hats off to him. Hats off to everybody around him. Guys rallying and having his back.”

The Packers were also formidable on the ground, accumulating 188 yards on 37 rushing attempts for an average of 5.1 yards per carry. In addition to averaging 224 yards on the ground over the past two weeks, Green Bay also leads the NFL in rushing, averaging 204 yards per contest.

Meanwhile, the Vikings are also playing some good football. After their 23-17 win over the San Francisco 49ers in Week 2, the Vikings demolished the Houston Texans 34-7. Sam Darnold finished 17 of 28 for 181 yards, with four TD passes and zero picks. Aaron Jones spearheaded the ground game with 102 yards on 19 carries. Justin Jefferson paced the team’s aerial attack, hauling in six catches for 81 yards and one touchdown.

Defensively, Minnesota held Houston to 4 of 14 on third down. This unit also sacked C.J. Stroud four times and picked him off twice. This was the first time Stroud had thrown an interception in his last 10 starts.

Now that we have set the stage for this matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

The Spread

On the heels of two consecutive victories, the Packers enter this divisional tilt as a three-point favorite (via OddsShark.com). Let’s look at how both teams have fared against the spread.

• The Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
• Green Bay has covered the spread five times in their previous six home outings.
• Meanwhile, the Vikings are 6-1-2 in their last nine road contests.
• In their last 18 “road” matchups against Green Bay, the Vikings are 6-12 against the spread.

Prediction: Minnesota Vikings (+3)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup is 43.5 points (via Bleacher Nation). Here’s why going with the “over” is the intelligent play.

• The total has gone OVER nine times in the Packers’ last 12 games.
• The OVER total boasts a 7-2 record in Green Bay’s previous nine matchups against NFC teams.
• In the Packers’ previous nine contests against NFC North opponents, the OVER total has prevailed six times.
• The total has gone OVER six times in the Vikings’ last eight outings against Green Bay.

Prediction: OVER 43.5 points

Player Prop Bet

I fully expect the ground game to take center stage in this matchup. With that in mind, Josh Jacobs is the key player to watch for the home team. He currently has -115 odds of rushing for more than 59.5 yards and -115 odds of finishing with less than 59.5 yards (per DraftKings). Here’s a look at how his numbers stack up against the estimated yards total.

• During the season, Jacobs is averaging 92.7 yards per game.
• In two career matchups against the Vikings, Jacobs has averaged just 39 yards per outing.
• In the team’s lone game against an NFC opponent this season, Jacobs produced 84 yards on 16 carries.
• Across his last five outings, Jacobs has averaged 84.4 yards per contest, exceeding the projected yards total for this matchup three times during that stretch.

Prediction: Josh Jacobs OVER 59.5 rushing yards