Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Expert Pick – September 10, 2023

GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. CHICAGO BEARS EXPERT PICK – SEPTEMBER 10, 2023 – The 2023 NFL season is upon us, and it began with the Detroit Lions outlasting the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs 21-20 on Thursday night. 

One of the marquee games on Sunday’s slate features the Green Bay Packers taking on the Chicago Bears. Let’s see which team has the edge in this NFC North matchup and why. 

Kickoff

When: Sunday, September 10, 2023 at 4:25 PM ET

Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL

TV: Fox

Related: NFL Week One Fantasy Sleepers

The Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears – Historical and Betting Trends

This is labeled as the oldest rivalry in the NFL. Unfortunately for the Bears, the rivalry has been one-sided, and for quite some time. In 2022, the Packers swept the season series. Not only that, it was the fourth consecutive season in which Green Bay accomplished this feat. 

Chicago produced only three wins in their 17 contests last season. One of the few bright spots was Justin Fields. Sure, his 2,242 passing yards put him in the middle of the pack (tied for 26th out of 50 QBs). However, his ability to make plays with his legs proved to be problematic for opposing teams. Fields rushed for 1,143 yards along with eight touchdowns. 

Thanks to an active offseason that saw the team add D.J. Moore to the mix, both the front office and the fanbase are hoping to see a more balanced attack. Kicking off the season against the division rival is a perfect opportunity to see if all the hype we have been hearing about is legitimate. 

On the flip side of the coin, the Packers have owned the Bears. 

Seriously.

Pack-Attack

I mentioned that Green Bay has swept the season series in each of the last four years. But it goes deeper than that. During Brett Favre’s career, the Packers were 23-13. And during the Aaron Rodgers era, the Packers were 24-5. 

Over the course of those two future Hall-of-Famers careers, the Packers won 72 percent of their games against Chicago. The one caveat here is Rodgers has moved on to greener pastures as he signed with the New York Jets during the offseason. 

Enter Jordan Love

Love was the Packers’ first-round back in 2020. Now that Rodgers has moved on, a new chapter in this rivalry is about to be written. It will be interesting to see if Love can pick up where Rodgers left off or if the Bears have enough talent to notch their first win over the Packers since December 2018. 

The Picks

The Spread

Chicago opened as a 9.5-point favorite. That line has moved to 1. Here are a few trends that suggest why Green Bay will cover the spread.

• Green Bay is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four contests. 
• The Packers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight outings against the Bears. 
• Green Bay is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 September games. 
• Chicago is just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall. 
• The Bears are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against NFC opponents. 
• Chicago is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 outings against division opponents. 

Prediction: Packers +1

Over/Under

The projected O/U total for this contest is 41.5. Here is a look at why I am inclined to go with the OVER here.

• The OVER has hit for Green Bay 12 times in its last 18 outings against the NFC North.
• In Chicago’s last 11 games, the OVER is 8-3.
• The OVER total has prevailed four times in Chicago’s last six games against NFC North teams. 
• The OVER total is 7-3 for the Bears in their last 10 games that were played on a Sunday. 

Prediction: OVER 41.5

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch in this contest is Chicago Bears quarterback, Justin Fields. He currently has -115 odds to pass for more than 183.5 yards and -115 odds to through for less than 183.5 yards. 

In 27 career games, Fields has amassed 4,112 passing yards. That is a per-game average of 152.3 yards per contest. However, in four career games against Green Bay, he is averaging 180.5 yards per outing. 

If this offense is as good as advertised, I am betting on Fields to take the next step. And what better time to start that process than on opening day against a team that the Bears have had a difficult time beating. 

Prediction: Justin Fields OVER 183.5 yards