GREEN BAY PACKERS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — December 29, 2024

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — December 29, 2024 — Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from Sunday’s slate features the Green Bay Packers (11-4 SU, 9-6 ATS) visiting the Minnesota Vikings (13-2 SU, 10-4-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, December 29, 2024 @ 4:25 PM ET

Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN

TV: FOX

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings — In-Season Stats & Betting Trends

Vikings Eyeing Top Spot In The NFC

The Vikings were undefeated through their first five games. But back-to-back losses against the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams left some of us wondering if this team was a contender or pretender. Since those setbacks, Minnesota has reeled off eight straight victories, including a 27-24 win over the Seattle Seahawks in Week 16. Seattle went up 24-20 with 4:41 left to play in regulation. However, Minnesota responded with a scoring drive of their own less than a minute later to take a 27-24 lead at the 3:51 mark.

Following the two-minute warning, Seahawks kicker Jason Myers missed a 60-yard field goal. And on Seattle’s last drive of the game, safety Theo Jackson picked off Geno Smith, preserving the win for the road team. Sam Darnold finished 22 of 35 for 246 yards and three touchdowns. Justin Jefferson had 10 catches for 144 yards and two TDs. Minnesota controls its destiny for the top spot in the conference if it can beat the Packers and the Lions.

Packers Look For Season Split Against Division Rival

On the other hand, the Packers have won five of their previous six contests following a 6-3 start. In their most recent outing, they defeated the New Orleans Saints to the tune of 34-0 on Monday Night Football. With Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara nursing injuries, New Orleans was no match for Green Bay, as the lopsided score indicates.

Jordan Love completed  16 of 28 passes for 182 yards and a touchdown. Josh Jacobs accumulated 107 yards from scrimmage and scored a touchdown for the sixth straight game. This contest marked the first shutout of the 2024 NFL season. Even more important, the Packers clinched their fifth postseason berth in six years.

When these teams faced off in Week 4, the Vikings won by a narrow 31-29 margin. Will the Packers avenge that loss, or will the Vikings extend their winning streak to nine games? Now that we have set the stage for this NFC-North showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

Hey, make sure you check out our picks on the GW Daily Picks page.

Packers at Vikings Spread Analysis

Minnesota was a slim 1.5-point favorite earlier this week but is now a one-point underdog (per Bet365.com). Here’s a look at how the teams have performed against the spread.

• The Vikings are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games.
• Minnesota is 1-6 ATS  in their previous seven Week 17 outings.
• In their last 13 Sunday contests, the Vikings are 9-3-1 against the spread.
• Meanwhile, the Packers have covered the spread in their previous five games.
• Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last five matchups against NFC opponents.
• In their previous 10 road outings, the Packers are 7-3 against the spread.

Prediction: Minnesota Vikings (+1)

Packers at Vikings Over/Under Prediction

The projected scoring total for this matchup is 48.5 points (via OddsShark.com). Here are a few trends that suggest why going with the “over” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone OVER seven times in the Vikings’ last nine outings against Green Bay.
• The OVER total has hit six times in Minnesota’s previous seven matchups against NFC North opponents.
• The total has gone OVER four times in the Packers’ last five Week 17 contests.
• In the previous 14 meetings between these franchises, the OVER total has prevailed 10 times.
• Minnesota and Green Bay average 53.9 points per game, 5.4 points higher than the over/under total.

Prediction: OVER 48.5 points

Packers at Vikings Player Prop Bet

Fresh off a performance where he racked up over 100 yards for the fifth time this season, Justin Jefferson is the key player to watch for the home team in this matchup. He currently has -115 odds of exceeding 84.5 receiving yards and -115 odds of finishing with less than 84.5 yards (via BettingPros). Let’s see how his numbers stack up against the projected yards total.

• During the season, Jefferson is averaging 92.5 yards per game.
• Jefferson has suited up in eight home games this season. In those contests, he averages 103.5 yards per outing.
• In 10 matchups against NFC teams this season, Jefferson is averaging 94.8 yards per game.
• Jefferson has averaged 95 yards per outing across his last five starts, exceeding the projected yards total three times during that stretch.

Prediction: Justin Jefferson OVER 84.5 receiving yards