Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns Expert Pick – December 12, 2023

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VS. PHOENIX SUNS EXPERT PICK – DECEMBER 12, 2023 – Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

One of the games on Tuesday night’s slate features the Golden State Warriors (10-12) taking on the Phoenix Suns (12-10). The Suns lead the season series 2-0, and they have taken five of the last six meetings between these two teams.

Will the Suns continue to dominate their counterparts, or will the Warriors finally rise to the occasion? Without further delay, here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Tuesday, December 12, 2023 at 10:00 PM ET

Where: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ

TV: TNT

Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Golden State Warriors Season Stats:

• Offense: 115.5 PPG – 11^th
• Offense Efficiency: 115.0 points per 100 possessions – 13^th
• Defense: 115.1 PPG – 20th
• Defense Efficiency: 114.5 points per 100 possessions – 18^th

The Golden State Warriors have been an up-and-down team this season. That sentiment is supported by the fact they have gone back and forth between wins and losses over their last six decisions. In their most recent outing, they were defeated by the Oklahoma City Thunder 138-106. Stephen Curry led the way with 34 points, six rebounds, and three assists. Klay Thompson contributed 22 points and four rebounds.

The Warriors are hoping for two things. First,  that Thompson’s last few outings are a sign of things to come. He is averaging 15.8 points per contest (the second-lowest scoring output of his career), but he has scored 20 or more points in three of his last five games. Second, to finally get a rare win against a team that has dominated them the last two seasons.

Phoenix Suns Season Stats:

• Offense: 115.1 PPG – 12th
• Offense Efficiency: 116.9 points per 100 possessions – 11^th
• Defense: 115.1 PPG – 20^th
• Defense Efficiency: 114.8 points per 100 possessions – 18th

The Phoenix Suns got off to a decent start, producing 11 wins through their first 17 contests. However, they have dropped four of their last five decisions. This includes a 114-106 loss to the Sacramento Kings last Friday. Devin Booker scored a team-high 28 points to go along with seven rebounds, and seven assists. Eric Gordon added 19 points, three assists, and two steals. Phoenix shot 48.2 percent from the field and 34.4 percent from beyond the arc.

Now, let’s take a deeper dive into the betting trends for both teams.

The Picks

The Spread

The Suns opened as a consensus three-point favorite in this matchup. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to 3.5 for Phoenix. Here is a look at why going with the home team to cover is a safe bet.

• The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six matchups against Phoenix.
• Golden State is 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games against the Suns.
• The Suns won the last two games by four and eight points, respectively.

Prediction: Phoenix Suns (-3.5)

Over/Under

Initially, the projected over/under total for this matchup was 232.5 points. The line has since moved to 234.5 points. Here are some trends that suggest why going with the “over” is the best option.

• The OVER total has hit seven times in the Warriors’ last 10 contests.
• In Phoenix’s last six games, the OVER total has cashed in five times.
• The OVER total has prevailed five times in the Suns’ last six home games.
• In the Suns’ last 18 matchups against Pacific Division teams, the OVER total has hit 12 times.
• The Suns have played 11 home games this season, with the total going OVER nine times.
• The total has gone OVER 14 times in Phoenix’s last 20 games.

Prediction: OVER 234.5 points

Player Prop Bets

My key player to watch for the Warriors is Stephen Curry.  He currently has -130 odds of scoring more than 28.5 points and +100 odds of scoring less than 28.5 points.

In 48 career games against the Suns, Curry is averaging just 22.7 points per game. Additionally, in the two regular-season games between these teams, Curry is averaging just 21.5 points per contest. Both trends are well below his projected points total for this contest.

On the flip side of the narrative, Curry is averaging 29.4 PPG this season, and he has exceeded the points total for this matchup seven times across his last 11 outings. This month, Curry is averaging 29 points per outing and 29.4 points per game in 11 road games this season.

Given his recent body of work, going with the “over” for Curry looks like a safe bet.

Prediction: Stephen Curry OVER 28.5 points

My key player for the Suns is Devin Booker, who currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 28.5 points and -125 odds of scoring less than 28.5 points. Here is a breakdown of how Booker has performed against the Warriors during his career, along with present-day numbers as well.

• In 25 career games against the Warriors, he is averaging 22 PPG.
• During the 2023-24 campaign, Booker is averaging 27.4 PPG.
• Over his last 10 outings, Booker’s points-per-game average is 26.2.
• The three times he has played on a Tuesday this season, Booker is averaging 27 PPG.
• In six home games, Booker is averaging 29.5 PPG.
• In his last 11 outings against Western Conference opponents, Booker is averaging 29.1 PPG.

Considering that most of the trends are lower than his projected total for this matchup, I’d lean toward going with the “under” for Booker.

Prediction: Devin Booker UNDER 28.5 points