Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Expert Pick – March 13, 2024

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VS. DALLAS MAVERICKS EXPERT PICK – MARCH 13, 2024 — Happy Wednesday, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games from tonight’s slate features the Golden State Warriors (34-30 SU, 36-28 ATS) taking on the Dallas Mavericks (37-28 SU, 35-30 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge heading into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Wednesday, March 13, 2024

Time: 8:30 PM ET

Where: American Airlines Center

Location: Dallas, TX

TV: NBCS-BA and WFAA

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks  — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Warriors Keep Pace With The High-Octane Mavericks?

Golden State Warriors Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 118.5 PPG – 7^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.6 points per 100 possessions – 11^TH
• Scoring Defense: 116.8 PPG – 18^TH         
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.9 points per 100 possessions – 16^TH

The Golden State Warriors find themselves in the No. 10 spot in the conference playoff race and they trail the ninth-place Los Angeles Lakers by one game. Over their last 10 outings, the Warriors have gone 6-4.

In the team’s most recent outing, Golden State defeated the San Antonio Spurs 112-102 on Monday night. Jonathan Kuminga led the way with 22 points to go along with five rebounds.

Klay Thompson finished with 21 points on 8-for-21 shooting from the floor. Chris Paul added 19 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists in 33 minutes of action.

After spotting the Spurs a two-point lead at the break (60-58), the Warriors turned up the defensive intensity in the second half. They outscored the Spurs 54-42, which included a 32-18 advantage in the decisive third quarter.

“We weren’t doing anything differently, just the effort and the connection,” Warriors coach Steve Kerr said, via ESPN. “If one guy is out of place and everybody’s giving great effort, it still results in two points. I just felt we were better connected in the second half and as that went, we picked up some momentum.”

The Warriors will need a similar effort against a Mavericks team that has the sixth-highest scoring average in the association.

Can The Mavericks Put Together Another Solid Defensive Effort?

Dallas Mavericks Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 119.1 PPG – 6^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 118.7 points per 100 possessions – 6^TH    
• Scoring Defense: 117.8 PPG – 23^RD
• Defensive Efficiency: 117.4 points per 100 possessions – 21^ST

The Dallas Mavericks occupy the No. 7 spot out west. However, they trail the sixth-seeded Phoenix Suns by just one game. That said, they can climb out of the play-in tournament slot, depending on how they finish the season.

The Mavericks have been a .500 team across their last 10 outings, but they enter this matchup on a three-game winning streak. This includes a blowout 127-92 win over the Chicago Bulls on Monday night.

Luka Doncic — who has been on a tear lately — led the Mavericks’ scoring attack with 27 points, 14 assists, and 12 rebounds.

Dereck Lively II scored 22 points and collected seven rebounds off the bench. Daniel Gafford contributed 20 points and seven boards.

Anyone who was hoping to see a competitive game would be very disappointed. The contest was over and done with pretty quickly as the Mavericks jumped out to a 44-16 lead after the first 12 minutes of action.

Additionally, while the Mavericks are not a lockdown defensive team by any means, they held Chicago to 39.3 percent shooting from the field and 20.6 percent from beyond the arc.

Will the Mavericks have similar success against the Warriors?

The Spread

The Mavericks opened as a 3.5-point favorite. However, the line has recently climbed to 7.5 points for the home team (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Warriors are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 outings.
• Golden State is 1-5 ATS in their last six matchups against Dallas.
• The Warriors are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games against Western Conference opponents.
• In their last eight games against Southwest Division teams, Golden State is 2-6 against the spread.
• The Mavericks are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games.

While the Mavericks have covered the spread at a high rate over their last 16 contests, that is not the reason why I’m going with the home team. With Stephen Curry out of the lineup due to an ankle injury, it’s difficult to foresee the Warriors keeping up with the Mavericks in this matchup.

Prediction: Dallas Mavericks (-7)

Over/Under

The over/under for this contest opened at 236 points. The line has dipped to 233.5 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice.

• In the Warriors’s last 11 contests, the UNDER total is 9-2.
• The UNDER total is a perfect 5-0 in Golden State’s last five outings.
• In the Mavericks’ last six home games, the UNDER total is 5-1.
• The two teams have exceeded the over/under total for this contest just three times in their last eight head-to-head matchups.

Prediction: UNDER 233 points

Player Prop Bet

Coming off his seventh consecutive triple-double in the team’s win against Chicago, Luka Doncic is the key player to watch for the Mavericks. He currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 33.5 points and -110 odds of finishing with less than 33.5 points.

Let’s take a glance to see how his numbers stack up against the projected scoring total for this matchup.

• In 17 career games against the Warriors, Doncic averages 30.7 points per contest.
• On the season, he is averaging 34.6 points per outing across 57 appearances.
• In 29 home contests, Doncic is averaging 34.8 PPG.
• Doncic has played against Western Conference teams 32 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 34 points per outing.
• In 12 matchups against Pacific Division opponents, Doncic is averaging 34.6 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Doncic is averaging 34.6 points per outing, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Luka Doncic OVER 33.5 points