Genesis Invitational Round 3: Homa Leads, Tiger Makes Cut
GENESIS INVITATION ROUND 3: HOMA LEADS, TIGER MAKES CUT – The Genesis Invitational tees off its third round this afternoon and the leaderboard is full of legitimate threats to take the trophy. The odds for many of these golfers will be short, because of their ability to close at a tournament, but we can always find value if we look closely.
The golfers at the top of the leaderboard are elite ball strikers with incredible ability on tee-to-green. If the weather doesn’t play a factor, many of these guys have a chance to stand in the leader’s circle Sunday night.
The par threes are going to be an issue for everyone this weekend. As Nate wrote in his preview, the par threes at the Genesis are relatively long. This makes club selection difficult and creates a more strategic problems than a shorter par three. Thus far this weekend, we’ve seen plenty of guys overshoot the green or end up in a hazard. My guess is that the guy who gets hot on the par threes will find themselves in a great position Sunday.
Par threes aside, we’ve located a few wagers that show great value on Saturday. Be sure to check in with Godzilla Wins throughout the weekend for all the best golf coverage.
All odds provided by Draft Kings as of February 18, 2023.  Note: these are live odds and will continue to fluctuate as the tournament progresses.Â
Tiger Woods Top 20 Finish (+900)
When Big Cat is playing, I don’t recommend fading the man. Most bettors took the negative odds on Woods to miss the cut before the tournament began. Then he came out and birdied the first hole. He played well his the first round, posting -2 and finding a nice stroke with his putter.
Woods struggled yesterday during round two of the tournament, posting a +3 for the day and dropping to T58. His great day on Thursday enabled him to ride out the round two struggles and make the cut for weekend play.
What’s more, he had to apologize for playing a prank on Justin Thomas. After Woods outdrove Thomas on the first tee on Thursday, he handed Thomas a tampon. A firestorm ensued around the prank, forcing Woods to address it and apologize.
While Woods could continue to struggle today, I like the plus money for a top 20 finish. Woods is always a threat to move on the weekend, even if this is a warmup tournament for Big Cat. Never count out a huge Saturday from the greatest golfer on earth.
Keith Mitchell Top 5 Winner (+120)
Despite trailing Max Homa by one shot going into round three, the sportsbooks list Keith Mitchell as an 11/1 underdog to win the tournament. Much of this has to do with the fact that there are so many closers in this field. Mitchell will have to outplay the likes of John Rahm, Max Homa, Collin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy, and Patrick Cantlay to claim the victory.
Oof.
But consider Mitchell’s top 5 odds. Mitchell is getting plus money for a top five finish and he’s played well enough in the recent past to warrant a wager here.
Mitchell tied for 22nd at the American Express tournament in mid-January. He followed that up with a fourth place finish at Pebble Beach the next week. He’s posted some strong scores on Sunday, so Mitchell is capable of shooting a low score when the pressure is high.
Don’t spend your rent money on a Keith Mitchell winner. His shot to win the tournament is pretty low, but he could find himself in the top 5 with two more days of good golf. Take the plus money and root for the underdog.
Patrick Cantlay Winner (+900)
Cantlay is the only golfer in the hunt who offers valuable odds as an outright winner. He’s currently tied for sixth with a -7 score for the tournament.
He’s played consistent golf this weekend, posting a -4 on Thursday and a -3 on Friday. He’s been extremely good tee-to-green, which is key to success at the Genesis Invitational.
I worry that Cantlaty can’t make enough putts to keep up with some of the heavy favorites. He’ll be playing in one of the last groups, which means the low light in the afternoon will make the greens harder to read. Cantlay has struggled to putt consistently this week, which could mean he might be out of this conversation come Sunday.
But Cantlay is a closer and a real threat to win any tournament when he’s golfing well. Grab this plus money and pray for the putts to start falling.
