Fresno State vs. Michigan Expert Pick and Prediction – August 31, 2024

FRESNO STATE VS. MICHIGAN EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – August 31, 2024 — Everyone knew that Michigan would debut a new coach when Jim Harbaugh made the move to Los Angeles and the NFL. People suspected Fresno State might have one as well after Jeff Tedford’s health issues, and that came to pass. Fortunately, Tedford was able to choose to step aside of his own volition, and he now hands the Bulldogs to Tim Skipper.

Overall, that decision should work out fine for Skipper and Fresno State. In week 1, the former Bulldog captain might be walking into a trap.

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Michigan barely resembles the defending national champions that ran through last season, but new coach Sherrone Moore still wants to be judged on those standards. And that’s a tough ask, given that Jim Harbaugh set the bar incredibly high in Ann Arbor. Over the past three years, the Wolverines are 40-3, and it’s taken a lot to beat them. The three teams that did it were Kenneth Walker’s Michigan State squad in East Lansing, eventual champion Georgia in 2021 and runner-up TCU in 2022.

With just seven starters back, Michigan is not meeting those standards. The Wolverines are still very good, but expecting a national championship again would be unfair. But that’s where Moore wants to be judged, and that means he needs to make a statement here, especially with Texas up next.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, August 31 at 7:30 p.m. EST

Where: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Mich.

TV: NBC

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of August 30th, 2024.

Fresno State vs. Michigan In-Season Trends

If you spent last September betting on Michigan, you probably didn’t have much of a bankroll for the rest of the season. The Wolverines didn’t cover any of their first four games and went 0-3 ATS in the non-conference. That was because they played a weak schedule and used the time to see where they had deficiencies that they could correct.

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It remains to be seen if Moore will follow Harbaugh’s blueprint. He has never been a head coach, and he’ll be looking to bring his team along with him. Fresno State won’t be intimidated; the Bulldogs won at both Purdue and Arizona State last season. Fresno State is 6-2 ATS against Power 4 opponents since 2019, and it’s won the game outright on three occasions. 

Weather

The weather should be pretty close to perfect for August. Temperatures will sit at 79 degrees at kickoff, a marked change from the recent heat wave.

The Difference-Makers

In Mikey Keene and Malik Sherrod, Fresno has a couple of talented options at its quarterback and running back positions. With Michigan debuting six new starters in the front seven, Sherrod should see plenty of work as Fresno tries to keep the Wolverine offense off the field.

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Donovan Edwards was the top returner among the Wolverines’ running backs, as Blake Corum ran out of eligibility and joined the Rams. Whether he can step in and thrive will determine how effective the Michigan offense will be.

The Pick

Michigan still has talent, but it’s going to take time for the Wolverines to put it all together. Fresno State has more experience at its skill positions, even though it has a talent gap.

With both coaches new in their positions, the total is probably the way to play this. If you have to take a spread play, I’d back the Bulldogs.