Florida vs. Tennessee Expert Pick and Prediction – February 1, 2025

FLORIDA VS. TENNESSEE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – February 1, 2025 — Is Tennessee going through a swoon, or are the Volunteers about to pick it up?

That’s the big question with the Volunteers after their first home loss of the season. Tennessee had been blasting everyone who walked into what used to be Thompson-Boling Arena (corporate names suck), until Kentucky turned the tables and beat the Vols by five. That’s now three losses in four games for Tennessee, and a No. 1 seed is looking further away for Rick Barnes’ crew.

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But is Florida somehow the opponent that Tennessee needs? On the surface, that’s a dumb statement. Not only are the Gators surging toward a No. 1 seed and sitting third in the SEC, but they’ve looked scary good on their past two Saturdays. Texas and Georgia both rolled into Gainesville and were never in the game, as Florida won by an average of 27 points.

Two problems exist, though. First, Florida hasn’t yet proven it can do the job away from the O-Dome. In between those two blowouts, the Gators went to winless South Carolina and escaped the Gamecocks by a single point.  Problem 2: Florida really doesn’t do well in Tennessee. Since Rick Barnes arrived in Knoxville in 2015, he’s 7-0 against the Gators in Knoxville and added a win over Florida in Nashville for good measure. And to make matters worse, five of those have come by double digits.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Saturday, February 1 at Noon

Where: Food City Center, Knoxville, Tenn.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Florida vs. Tennessee In-Season Trends

When Florida and Tennessee meet in either football or men’s basketball, the strategy is simple: Take the home team to win and get ready to cash the ticket. Rick Barnes has been on the sidelines for the past 14 meetings of Gators vs. Volunteers, and the Vols are 1-5 in Gainesville and 8-0 in the state of Tennessee. (This also holds in football; the Vols have lost 10 in a row on the gridiron in the Swamp).

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Florida hasn’t been able to do much of anything against the Vols in Tennessee; the Gators are 1-5 ATS in their past six games in the state. Nor has Florida done much this year outside the Sunshine State. The Gators have played four true road games, and one was at Florida State. In road games outside of the state of Florida, the Gators are 1-2, only besting Arkansas.

The Difference-Makers

Quietly, Alex Condon is developing into a rebounding force. Now the Gators need him to be a more consistent scoring force. Condon disappeared against South Carolina with five points, and the Gators nearly paid for it with a loss. Against Missouri, Condon wasn’t effective either, getting just eight points. That happened because Missouri shot the lights out and Florida had to abandon its inside game, but that’s no excuse. Condon has to make himself effective for the Gators to be at their best.

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Either Zakai Zeigler has to start making some 3-pointers or stop taking so many. Against Kentucky, he shot 1-for-11 from behind the arc and Tennessee lost by five. A deep threat would make a big difference for the Vols.

The Pick

It’s hard to say home court makes that much of a difference, but in this matchup, it really does. Florida has played brilliantly at home, but it hasn’t been anywhere near as good on the road. With how poor Florida has been in this building, it’s hard to see the Gators getting out of their funk here.

This appears to be the game where Tennessee both stops the bleeding and gets a big Quad 1 victory.