Florida vs. Mississippi State Expert Pick and Prediction – September 21, 2024

FLORIDA VS. MISSISSIPPI STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – September 21, 2024 — Call it the Dan Mullen Bowl, call it the battle of the SEC dumpster fires, call it Billy Napier’s last chance to turn this around. Whatever you want to call it, it’s a mess of an early game between two teams that were just a mess last week and need something to save their seasons.

On the Florida side, it doesn’t seem to matter what the Gators try at quarterback. Graham Mertz was pedestrian at best and D.J. Lagway was just awful. Together, the two combined for three interceptions against two touchdowns and only managed 63 yards of offense in the first half. By the time Florida got anything going, Texas A&M led 20-0 and the game was essentially over.

Related: NC State vs. Clemson: Pick and Prediction

For Mississippi State, the problem was the running game. The Bulldogs just couldn’t get much of anything going on the ground, which consistently forced them into bad situations. Mississippi State has been a pass-first team for years, but the Bulldogs should at least have been able to get something going against Toledo. Instead, the Rockets led 28-3 before Mississippi State got anything going, and the game was essentially over at that point.

With both teams also having taken a Power 4 non-conference loss, they’re essentially just hoping not to embarrass themselves the rest of the way. Jeff Lebby will be given time at Mississippi State, given the mess he inherited following Mike Leach’s death, but Billy Napier seems to be pretty much cooked. Unless the Gators turn this around quickly, it’s hard to see him surviving in Gainesville.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, September 21 at Noon EST

Where: Davis-Wade Stadium, Starkville, Miss.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of September 19th, 2024.

Florida vs. Mississippi State In-Season Trends

There’s a reason that Zach Arnett didn’t make it last season in Starkville. Seven of them, to be precise, as Mississippi State went 1-7 in SEC play and was an absolute disaster in keeping games close. Last season, the Bulldogs went 1-6-1 ATS in the conference, with the only cover being their 7-3 win over Arkansas.

Related: Illinois vs. Nebraska Pick and Prediction

The trends have Florida handling things here, as the visitor has won the past three matchups. But there’s a caveat to that: Florida is just 3-16 in its past 19 games away from Gainesville. All three games this year have been played in Gainesville, so the Gators haven’t shown any signs as to how they might do on the road. This might be the rare case where playing on the road helps, as it’s possible that things have gotten toxic with the fan base wanting Napier gone.

Weather

The good news is that the storms in the Gulf of Mexico won’t be making their way to Mississippi this week. The bad news is that the humidity will, with temperatures sitting around 91 degrees on a mostly sunny day.

The Difference-Makers

Even as the Florida passing attack continues to sputter, the run game has mostly been effective. Montrell Johnson Jr. has three scores and 166 rushing yards on the season, which at least gives Florida something it can point to on offense.

Related: Why Matt Rhule Passed Deion Sanders

For all the Bulldogs’ struggles last time out, Blake Shapen still makes good decisions with the football for the most part. Throwing for 300+ yards is still an accomplishment, even if most of it comes in garbage time. If the Bulldogs are going to do anything with the ball, he needs to be a big part of it.

The Pick

Both teams are virtually impossible to trust right now, but it’s a little easier to count on Mississippi State while getting points at home. The Bulldogs had a terrible night against Toledo, but they’ll have the home crowd and they’re playing for a new coach who is figuring out which pieces go where.

Florida looks lost at sea at the moment. One more could be the end for Napier in Gainesville. There’s no way you can lay points with that situation.