Florida Panthers vs. Edmonton Oilers Pick and Prediction – June 13, 2024

FLORIDA PANTHERS VS. EDMONTON OILERS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – June 13, 2024 — It’s only Game 3, but it feels like this game is do-or-die for Edmonton. The Oilers did get some good news when the Panthers’ plane got delayed, but that’s about all they have going for them in this series.

Edmonton’s high-octane offense has ground to a halt against Florida’s defense. In two games, the Oil have one goal. In Game 2, they didn’t even create chances. Only seven shots got to Sergei Bobrovsky in the first two periods, a new record low for a Stanley Cup Finals game. Whatever the Oilers thought would work against the Panthers has clearly failed.

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The one good thing for Edmonton is that the Oilers have figured things out when their backs have been against the wall. Once they went down 2-1 to Dallas and 3-2 to Vancouver, they didn’t lose a game the rest of the way. But they’re down 2-0 for the first time in the playoffs, and they’ll have to win either Game 5 or Game 7 in Sunrise to have any chance at lifting the Cup.

For the moment, the Oilers have to find some way to generate offense. The Panthers are far deeper than Edmonton, and the Oil have proven unable to solve this puzzle. Edmonton hasn’t had to work out something this complicated all postseason, and Kris Knoblauch is quickly running out of time.

The Odds

Puck Drop

When: Thursday, June 13 at 8 p.m. EST

Where: Rogers Place, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada 

TV: ABC

Public Bets: 56% on Edmonton

Public Money: 53% on Florida

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of June 13th, 2024

Florida Panthers vs. Edmonton Oilers In-Season Trends

Is Sergei Bobrovsky so far in Edmonton’s head now that the Oilers aren’t even trying their normal plan of attack? It seems like it after sending just 19 shots on goal and giving the Florida defense an easy time of things. Home ice isn’t even something Edmonton can necessarily count on here; the Panthers have won three of their past four trips to Rogers Place.

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Once again, the same thing held for the Oilers on defense: three is death. Going back to April 1, the Oilers are 3-14 when they allow the opponent to find a third goal. Since the end of the Los Angeles series, Edmonton is 1-7 when the opposition gets three or more on the board. Naturally, Florida has scored at least three goals 14 times in 19 playoff games.

Players to Watch

Will Leon Draisaitl take advantage of his second chance? He could have been suspended for his hit on Aleksander Barkov, which likely would have meant the end of Edmonton’s Cup dreams. He wasn’t, but now he’s got to get on the scoresheet. Draisaitl hasn’t scored a goal in four games, and he hasn’t picked up a point yet against the Panthers.

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Anton Lundell and Evan Rodrigues are not names you think of when you think of Florida’s scorers. But there they were, coming up with key plays in Game 2 to produce goals. It’s why this series has been one-sided so far: the Panthers are a complete team with depth at every level.

The Pick

Home ice does make a difference. Florida knows that better than anyone, given the situation it faced last year. The Panthers looked absolutely spooked by Vegas in two blowout losses in Nevada, then came home and won Game 3 in overtime. In fact, four of the past five teams to go up 2-0 lost Game 3, and the only exception was in 2021, when COVID protocols meant the Lightning only had to play in front of 3,500 fans in Montreal.

No team with a 2-0 lead has won Game 3 in front of a truly hostile crowd since Los Angeles in 2014. But the Panthers just might pull it off. The experience of losing last year seems to have lit a fire under this squad. Florida has been on a mission from Game 1 of the first round, and Edmonton doesn’t look capable of stopping it.

Maybe the Oilers steal one game in Edmonton. But I don’t see it.