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FAU Owls vs. Kansas State Wildcats Expert Pick

Nate Perry, Senior Analyst #NoPickNate
NCAA SDSU Alabama Tourney Expert Pick.
NCAA SDSU Alabama Tourney Expert Pick. Photo by USATSI.

FAU Owls vs. Kansas State Wildcats Expert Pick

FAU OWLS VS. KANSAS STATE WILDCATS EXPERT PICK - Welcome back to another basketball preview as we look to continue our red hot streak. We gave out UConn on Thursday and SDSU on Friday and let’s see if we can’t keep this thing rolling for a little bit longer. 

James has already written up a UConn game that I’ll be locked in for as I look to cash my pre-tourney 15/1 bets on the Huskies to cut down the nets. So, I’ll be turning my focus to another exciting matchup.

FAU (31-3) is taking on the K-State Wildcats (23-9) in an unlikely battle to determine who will keep dancing into the Final Four.

This is a fun game between two teams that nobody had expected much out of in November when the season started. K-State was picked by most college basketball journalists to finish last in the Big 12, and FAU has no real pedigree to speak of that would suggest they would surge out and win over 30 games this season.

The Odds

Matchup

Open

Spread

Points

Moneyline

FAU

(31-3 SU)

+1.5

+1.5

O144

+110

K-State

(23-9 SU)

U146.5

-1.5

U144

-130

Tipoff

When: Saturday, March 25, 2023 at 6:09 pm EST

Where: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

TV: TBS

Public Bets: K-State, 71%

Public Money: K-State, 61%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 25th, 2023

FAU Owls

I think that it’s time to put all the talk about FAU’s soft strength of schedule and bracket luck to rest after their game against Tennessee. The Owls survived a brutal game (and benefitted from a Tigers meltdown) against Memphis after being slotted into the tournament as a nine-seed, got a little bit lucky that FDU sprung an upset against Purdue, and then showed how good they were in a win against Tennessee. The Vols did everything they could to use their physicality to disrupt what FAU wanted to do and nothing could slow them down.

The Owls feel like a hot team that believe in themselves.

FAU rotates in nine players who contribute regular minutes. On its own, this may not seem important, but K-State is coming off a grueling OT loss against Michigan State that they are probably still feeling after one day of rest. These games are being played on thin margins as we progress through the tourney, and I think that fresh legs could serve to make like difficult for K-State.


K-State and Markquis Nowell

Markquis Nowell has been nothing short of a revelation for Kansas State in the tournament and has been an absolute assist-dishing machine for them thus far.

FAU isn’t the most physical bunch, as their most typical lineup features four guards, but they are pesky and don’t give up many good looks for shooters. Nowell might not be playing at full strength after his last game, and if he’s limited at all, it will spell trouble for K-State’s ability to find open looks. Nowell needs to be firing on all cylinders to give them a chance here.

The Pick

Ultimately, this pick comes down to the smaller details for me. I think FAU can generate a lot easier offense than K-State can with their 4-out rotation and ability to find open shots on the perimeter. The guard play has been elite for K-State, but they’ve needed every bit of the dynamic playmaking from Nowell and Johnson to keep them on track. If FAU can find a way to keep switching to slow those two down, I suspect the Wildcat offense will stall out enough for FAU to get through with a victory here.

I’m not interested in taking the points here. Just go ahead and give me FAU on the moneyline as a small dog.



Nate's Pick

FAU Moneyline (+110)

Author

  • Nate Perry is a career college educator and literary writer who tends bar to get the inside scoop on sports. He makes his living in hardscrabble downtown Reno, Nevada. A sports handicapper by trade, Nate is legendary at the sportsbook in Reno. If you can gamble on it, chances are Nate has tried his hand at it. He's a former fiction writer who has turned to writing about sports in a desperate bid to get published, much to the chagrin of nearly everyone around him. He is featured here with his extremely large dog, Boatswain.

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