Euro 2024: Germany vs. Scotland Expert Pick and Prediction – June 14, 2024

EURO 2024: GERMANY VS. SCOTLAND EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – June 14, 2024 — German soccer has commonly been referred to as The Machine, but The Machine has needed serious repairs as of late. Since winning the 2014 Euro title, little has gone right for Germany. The Germans crashed out of the 2018 World Cup bottom of the group, they were dismissed in the round of 16 at Euro 2021 by England and they again failed to get past the group stage at the 2022 World Cup.

The feeling has been much like the 2006 World Cup, when Germany hosted with little expectations. That side reached the semifinals and set the stage for German triumph in 2014. But even though the odds are low on Germany to win the title (+550), Die Mannschaft isn’t seen as a favorite by most experts.

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However, Germany appears to have the right matchup for its Euro opener. Scotland has just one win in its past 10 matches, and it came over Gibraltar. The Tartan Army sailed through the early stages of qualifying, then mailed in the last three matches thanks to Norway blowing another opportunity. After winning their first five matches, the Scots knew they were safely in as long as Norway didn’t upset Spain, and they approached things accordingly.

But Scotland hasn’t been able to get back to where it was in summer 2023, which represents a serious worry for Steve Clarke’s side. The Scots got a manageable group with Hungary and Switzerland, but much of their tournament depends on this match. Their goal is simple: don’t blow the group in the first match.

Kickoff

Teams: Germany vs. Scotland

When: Friday, June 14 at 3 p.m. EST

Where: Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany

TV: FOX

Spread: Germany -1.5/Scotland +1.5

Moneyline: Germany -370/Scotland +1000/Draw +500

Totals: Over 2.5 (-160)/Under 2.5 (+130)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of June 14th, 2024 

Scouting Germany

Which German side is going to show up? Will the Germans resemble the side that pushed around France and the Netherlands in March? Or will they look like the one that drew with Ukraine and escaped Greece? A lot will depend on new star Florian Wirtz, who was key in Bayer Leverkusen’s unbeaten Bundesliga campaign. Putting him and Jamal Musiala in the midfield should give Germany the ability to boss most matches in the middle third.

If the Germans can connect with Kai Havertz in the final third, they have the potential to recapture their past glory. But the defense has been leaky, and the weight of expectations will play a role here.

Scouting Scotland

Scotland has never made it out of the group stage in a major tournament. So the Scots’ goal is clear: make it into the top three and give themselves a chance. That starts with not allowing Germany to break this game open. It’ll have to, because attacking is not one of Scotland’s strengths.

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Over the past nine matches, Scotland’s best attacker has been “the other team”. Three of the Scots’ past 11 goals have been own goals off an opponent, with Lawrence Shankland the only player in a blue shirt to score more than once.

Own goals count the same, of course, but Scotland cannot rely on a German mistake to steal the points. It’s going to take some creativity, which Scotland does not possess.

Best Bets

Under 2.5 Goals (+130): Remember, at the Euros, 16 of 24 teams advance to the knockout stage. That rewards defensive play, especially when you face the group favorite. Scotland desperately wants to reach the round of 16 for the first time. It has every reason to play defensively. A 0-0 draw would be a brilliant result for Scotland; a 1-0 loss wouldn’t bother anyone in the Tartan Army.

Germany Win to Nil (-125): Germany has won two of its past three to nil. This team does look different under Julian Nagelsmann, likely because of younger players aging onto the squad. Brazil is now 10 years in the rearview mirror, and only Toni Kroos, Manuel Neuer and Thomas Muller are survivors from that squad. Nagelsmann trusting his youth seems to be working, and Scotland’s not likely to threaten the goal much.

Germany 2-0 (+425): You’d like better odds on a correct score play, but this is life with national team bets. Germany’s likely to take much of the first half to unlock Scotland’s defense, and the Scots’ satisfaction with a low scoreline means they likely won’t adjust much even after one goal. That should allow Germany to find the second and lock down.