The Difference-Makers

This game will be won or lost with guard play. When the teams met in Charlottesville, Armaan Franklin and Kihei Clark shot the lights out, going 16-for-23 from the field. They did it without doing a lot of damage from 3-point range, as just four of their baskets came from the perimeter. Duke defends the 3 better than almost anyone, so Virginia’s guards will have to take and make smart two-point shots here. 

Duke also needs to count on its guards. Out of the five Blue Devil starters, Tyrese Proctor and Jeremy Roach combined for 13 of 14 baskets. The three taller Duke starters shot a combined 1-for-10 against Virginia. The Cavaliers’ backcourt defense isn’t as strong as in recent years; the Blue Devils must take advantage.

The Pick

These teams are often so evenly matched that taking the underdog is an excellent strategy. Over the past 28 matchups between Duke and Virginia, the underdog has covered 20 with one push. When the public doesn’t believe in Tony Bennett, that’s when he’s at his best.

There’s also the factor of coaching in an ACC tournament final. Jon Scheyer has played in this game and coached in it as an assistant. But he’s never faced this game as the man in charge. Most coaches struggle with games like this early in their careers, and he’s going up against Bennett, one of the best minds in the game.

To me, that lends itself to taking the points with Virginia.

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