Duke vs. Virginia Expert Pick and Prediction – February 17, 2025

DUKE VS. VIRGINIA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – February 17, 2025 — Is this a case of too little, too late for Virginia? Unless the Cavaliers have an NC State-like run in them, almost certainly.

On one hand, Ron Sanchez has done credible work in squeezing four wins in five games for the Cavaliers, which has Virginia back on the right side of .500. On the other, this is not a program that hopes to get to the NIT.

For all of the chatter about Tony Bennett’s problems in March, he usually had November to February figured out. Over Bennett’s final seven seasons, he finished with single-digit losses five times and finished third or better in the ACC six times.

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The ship sailed on both of those for this Virginia team long ago. Their goals are two: give Sanchez a shot to earn the full-time job and give the Cavaliers a bye into the second round of the ACC tournament. Most likely, Virginia needs to make a deep run to give Sanchez a shot, but the Cavaliers still have a shot at drawing a top-nine seed. The ACC’s decision to freeze the field at 15 means the 8-9 game will feature two teams who don’t play on night one, while 10 to 15 have to play an extra game.

That means the Cavaliers could really use a win over Duke, which is in a trap game situation. The Blue Devils sit 14-1 in the ACC and are likely on their way to the top seed in the conference tournament (remember, there’s no regular season title in the ACC).

But the bigger concern for the Blue Devils is Saturday against Illinois. Facing the Illini in New York represents a real opportunity for Duke to lock down a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. With the SEC dominating proceedings, Duke is likely to be the team with the best opportunity to go to Newark. If the Blue Devils land in Newark, they’ll be playing in front of lots of their fans. Anywhere else could make Duke an underdog. And to stay on track for Newark, they have to avoid the trap in Charlottesville.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Monday, February 17 at 8 p.m.

Where: John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, Va.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Duke vs. Virginia In-Season Trends

Duke hasn’t seen this Virginia team, but it saw last year’s and had zero problem with last year’s. The Blue Devils routed the Cavaliers by 25 in a clear preview of the disaster that was to come in the NCAA tournament. But in February, the Cavaliers have been the better bet. Virginia has covered in four of the past five meetings in February and all three times in Charlottesville in that stretch.

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Even though this is still a program with Tony Bennett’s fingerprints on it, the Cavaliers have discovered an offense. In its past seven games, Virginia has gotten to 70 points six times. With the number sitting where it is, Duke would be on track for an over if it does much of anything on offense, which would be nine overs in 11 games for Virginia.

The Difference-Makers

Part of why Virginia has an offense is because of Isaac McKneely getting going. McKneely has proven a strong 3-point shooter, hitting 40% or better in three of his past five games. Unsurprisingly, Virginia won all three and McKneely scored 20 points or more all three games.

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Stopping Duke is all about stopping Cooper Flagg. There’s really not a lot this Virginia team does well on defense, which means this is set up for Flagg to dominate. If he takes over the game, there isn’t much the Cavaliers can do.

The Pick

This line looks like it’s a little much for Duke’s current situation. Virginia has momentum and reason to care, and the Blue Devils really don’t need their best effort for this game. Nor are they likely to give their best effort in this game, not with Illinois on tap.

This game is all about Duke surviving and avoiding taking a bad loss. Virginia would be a Quad 2 defeat, so this would probably knock Duke off the 1 line if it falls here. That should keep Duke from disaster, but it’s probably not going to be enough for the Blue Devils to cover.