Duke vs. Mississippi Expert Pick and Prediction – January 2, 2025

DUKE VS. MISSISSIPPI EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – January 2, 2025 — This matchup had so much potential before opt-outs and the transfer portal completely ruined things.

Instead of a quarterback showdown between outgoing senior Jaxson Dart and underappreciated Maalik Murphy, we get Dart vs. Henry Belin. Belin has made all of one start in his career and was relegated to third-string duty this year at Duke. But he’s the guy because Murphy transferred to Oregon State and Grayson Loftis also hit the portal. Just for good measure, the Blue Devils also lost their running back.

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And that’s why Mississippi is expected to dominate this matchup. The Rebels have lost more players to the portal than Duke did, but the Blue Devils lost the more important pieces. Duke also doesn’t have anywhere near as much depth as Ole Miss does, which could result in a matchup reminiscent of last year’s Orange Bowl nightmare for Florida State. Mississippi probably isn’t capable of inflicting that much pain, but it could still turn into a rout.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Thursday, January 2 at 7:30 p.m.

Where: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, Fla.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Duke vs. Mississippi In-Season Trends

Think Mississippi is all gas, no brakes? Those days are gone, even if the public doesn’t think so. The Rebels have cashed the under in nine of their past 10 games, with the only exception coming when they hung 63 on Arkansas. Ole Miss moves the ball well, but it also stops opposing attacks regularly. When the Rebels piece everything together, they are difficult to beat.

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Duke has failed to cover just once in its past eight games, and that only because Miami hit the gas in the fourth quarter. The Blue Devils trailed the Hurricanes by a point before Miami scored three touchdowns to cover with Duke catching 21. Otherwise, the Blue Devils have mostly surprised their critics.

Weather

This will be cold for Florida. Traditionally, the Gator Bowl was played in the morning, but it’s since been made a night kickoff. That means temperatures will dip into the mid 40s by the second half.

The Difference-Makers

The Rebel defense got hit pretty hard by opt-outs and transfers, so Dart and his accuracy will have to be on target here. Dart threw 25 touchdowns against six interceptions on the year, so this is something he’s used to having to do.

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Having Jordan Moore on the field potentially makes things easier for the Blue Devils. Moore was a top target all year, and Belin will likely look his way often.

The Pick

It’s hard to take Mississippi with the number being where it is, but Duke’s offense has really been hit hard by the loss of its best weapons. The Blue Devils fought gamely to get to nine wins, and they’ll likely give a credible effort in this game.

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That said, the Rebels have the defense to force Belin into bad decisions, and that’s likely going to carry the day. Duke just doesn’t have the personnel needed to keep this close.