Duke vs. Miami Expert Pick and Prediction – November 2, 2024

DUKE VS. MIAMI EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – November 2, 2024 — Everything seems to be unfolding perfectly for Miami to make it to 12-0 and a spot in the ACC championship game. Out of the remaining four games, none are against a team that’s above .500 in the ACC, as they won’t see either Clemson, Pittsburgh or SMU the rest of the way.

But the Hurricanes now have to get by an old friend, as former Miami coach Manny Diaz brings his squad down after doing one of the best coaching jobs in the ACC. Duke was supposed to struggle after Mike Elko left for Texas A&M and Riley Leonard went to Notre Dame. But somehow, Diaz has managed to win in his first year in Durham.

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The Blue Devils are 6-2 overall, and they could have been 7-1 if not for kicking miscues against SMU. On top of that, Diaz is the first Duke coach in history to play Florida State and not take a loss. Granted, the Seminoles have been a disaster, but still, Duke was 0-22 against them going into that game.

And still, nobody takes the Blue Devils all that seriously. Duke is still considered a major underdog to pull this off against Miami, even as the Hurricanes haven’t exactly run through the best of the ACC. Other than a win over Louisville, Miami hasn’t exactly looked impressive. The Hurricanes have been just surviving, which might have this team on track to get exposed.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, November 2 at Noon EST

Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla. 

TV: ABC

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Duke vs. Miami In-Season Trends

The Blue Devils have been a great play this season because nobody can believe this rise is happening. Just like Indiana being 8-0 or Vanderbilt on the cusp of a bowl, nobody can quite take Duke seriously. The ATS losses came with Duke as a heavy favorite to both Elon and Connecticut; outside of those games, Duke has acquitted itself well.

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Miami has been defense-optional this season. The Hurricanes can score, there’s no doubt about that. Miami hasn’t scored less than 36 points in a game all season. But in games like Virginia Tech and California, the defense couldn’t really hold things together. Points have been expected in this matchup historically, however; the under is 5-1 in the past six meetings.

Weather

This could get wet and muggy. Temperatures will hit 85 degrees, typical for South Florida at any point of the year. With showers in the forecast, conditions could be a problem.

The Difference-Makers

Maalik Murphy had a big game against SMU, but Duke’s not really the kind of offense that’s used to putting up huge numbers. Murphy threw the ball 48 times against the Mustangs, and putting the ball in the air that often against the Hurricanes might become disastrous.

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Cam Ward continues to do big things at Miami. He did not have a great game against Florida State, but otherwise, he’s looked good in ACC play. In his previous four games, he topped 300 yards each time, and he went for 400 yards against California and South Florida.

The Pick

Even though Diaz is a defensive guy, the numbers are a little low here. Miami just puts up far too many points to expect Duke to be the first team to hold this offense under 35 points. That said, Miami’s defense isn’t all that strong, and the Hurricanes allow teams to hang around much longer than they should.

Duke getting 21 points seems excessive. Miami has played four ACC games, and only one covered that number (Florida State, of course). The other three were decided by a combined 12 points. Duke’s better than people expect, and it should be able to keep this thing within three scores.