Duke vs. Florida State Expert Pick and Prediction – March 2, 2025

DUKE VS. FLORIDA STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – March 2, 2025 — With Louisville and North Carolina both losing, third place in the ACC will be decided by this game.

And Florida State could really use the momentum as the Seminoles try to make a run to a top-four seed. FSU came up with a huge win last time out by beating Notre Dame, vaulting the Seminoles back into the conversation. They’ve won four in a row, they’re playing excellent basketball and they could lock down a pair of home games if they can make a run in the ACC tournament.

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Duke is trying to protect what it has. The Blue Devils were seemingly going to waltz to third, but losses to Notre Dame and Louisville opened the door for them to get caught by their rivals. Duke stemmed some of the bleeding by beating North Carolina, but this still is a team that’s not playing up to its standards right now.

Although Kara Lawson has rebuilt Duke women’s basketball, she hasn’t yet figured out March. The Blue Devils have not won more than one game in the ACC tournament under her watch, nor have they made it out of the Sweet 16 yet. Duke needs to get a win to show it can handle the pressure.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Sunday, March 2 at 6 p.m.

Where: Tucker Center, Tallahassee, Fla.

TV: ACC Network

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Duke vs. Florida State In-Season Trends

If you can score on Duke, you can beat Duke. The Blue Devils have one win all year where the opponent made it to 70 points. Meanwhile, five of their losses saw a team hit or break that magic number.

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That could be a problem against Florida State, which regularly plays games in the 80s. Out of their defeats this year, only Stanford managed to beat the Seminoles when they broke 80 points. FSU’s lowest scoring game of the year came against Louisville, which held the Seminoles to 69 points. In short, something has to give.

The Difference-Makers

Ta’Niya Latson and her 26 points per game lead the nation, and will draw the lion’s share of the attention. The Blue Devils excel at finding ways to limit good scorers, and they have to hold her in check to keep the Seminoles from running all over them.

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Ashlon Jackson is Duke’s best real 3-point shooter as well as the Blue Devils’ best at the free throw line. Getting her the ball early and often would go a long way toward Duke being able to slow the game down and play its way.

The Pick

The styles couldn’t be more different, and the Seminoles really seem to be hitting their stride at the moment. Florida State’s style is tough to handle even when you’re playing well, and Duke really hasn’t been anywhere near its best.

One of these years, Duke is going to stop peaking in January. This does not appear to be that time.