Duke vs. Arizona Expert Pick and Prediction – November 22, 2024

DUKE VS. ARIZONA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – November 22, 2024 — When a team can’t run with Arizona, it’s going to run into problems. When a team can run with Arizona, the Wildcats really don’t have a good backup plan.

And that was the issue that the Wildcats ran into in Madison. Last time out, Arizona outrebounded Wisconsin 52-28, but that was because the Wildcats missed their shots and the Badgers didn’t. When your opponent shoots 48% from the floor and there’s as many possessions in the game as Arizona likes, you’re going to give up a staggering amount of points.

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Duke might need all the shots it can get against Arizona, given how poorly the Blue Devils shot the ball against Kentucky. When you go 4-for-24 from behind the arc, you’re not going to beat a lot of teams, especially against an opponent like Kentucky. The Blue Devils just couldn’t get the job done because their freshmen really couldn’t hit anything.

Arizona will provide a lot of options from the floor. But if Duke is still missing shots, it isn’t going to be enough of them to matter.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Friday, November 22 at 10:30 p.m.

Where: McKale Center, Tucson, Ariz.

TV: ESPN2

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Duke vs. Arizona In-Season Trends

As is per usual at this point in the season, it’s hard to tell much of anything from the early going. Duke had no problems with its three non-Power 5 opponents, and the same held for Arizona. These teams are used to blowing opponents’ doors off in November, and that happened again outside of their big test game.

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The Blue Devils have not faced a true road game, though, as they played Kentucky on a neutral court. Arizona has the experience of playing a tough opponent in a hostile environment, which could help them out in front of a friendly, fired-up crowd here.

The Difference-Makers

Cooper Flagg is going to get most of the attention and most of the shots. Arizona is going to focus a lot on him, so Duke’s going to need someone else to step up and provide some offense. If Kon Kneuppel can shoot better than 5-for-20, it would make a big difference for the Blue Devils.

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Caleb Love often saved his best games for Duke when he was at North Carolina, and the Wildcats could really use a stronger shooting performance. The 2-for-13 he put up at Wisconsin isn’t going to cut it.

The Pick

The Blue Devils played well in the first half against Kentucky, but the youth really showed up in the second half when the Wildcats steeled themselves. Arizona looks capable of doing the same thing here. Giving only 1.5 points is kind of difficult to believe, given that the game is in Tucson and the Wildcats won this game in Durham last year.

Duke still has to prove it can handle tough tasks like this one. The Blue Devils didn’t do that against Kentucky, and I don’t think they’re mature enough to do it against Arizona for 40 minutes. I’m backing the home side.