Dolphins vs. Rams Expert Pick
The desperate Dolphins must travel across the country to face the streaking Rams. These teams are trending in opposite directions, and injuries may be following suit. The Rams just got their star receivers back, but the Dolphins may be without their star in this game. This is a solid matchup for Monday night despite no winning record for either team. Read more Dolphins vs. Rams Expert Pick.
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Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins lost to the Bills 30-27 last week. It was their third consecutive loss and moved them to 2-6. Tua Tagovailoa was 25 of 28 with 231 yards and two touchdowns, but they could not beat the Bills.
Tyreek Hill (wrist) is questionable and will be a game-time decision on Monday night. Dolphins’ head coach Mike McDaniel said it was 50/50, so I would consider him a true game-time decision. Offensive lineman Austin Jackson (knee) is out. Safety Jevon Holland (hand/knee) is questionable after two limited practices.
Los Angeles Rams
Last week, the Rams beat the Seahawks 26-20 and moved to .500. It was their third consecutive victory after starting the season 1-4. They now sit in a tie for second in the NFC West with the 49ers, only trailing the 5-4 Cardinals.
Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are officially off the injury report, which is a positive sign. Tackle Rob Havenstein (ankle) and defensive tackle Neville Gallimore (shoulder) will not play this week. Guard Kevin Dotson (ankle/knee) is questionable after two limited practices this week.
Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Rams Head-To-Head
The offense looked putrid without Tagovailoa, but it may not be terrible without Hill. They averaged 10 points per game without Tagovailoa and averaged 21 with him. Tyreek Hill has only missed one game since joining the Dolphins, and they beat the Jets 30-0 last season. It is difficult to discern how they will look if he does not play, but I do not think it will affect them nearly as much as missing Tagovailoa.
De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert should have room to run this week. The Rams allowed 4.4 yards per attempt this season and 135.1 rushing yards per game. Achane averages 12.3 attempts, and Mostert averages 10 attempts per game since the week six bye. Achane has done his damage through the air. He has eight targets, 50 receiving yards, and a receiving touchdown in week eight and nine. It would not be surprising to see him receive eight targets again if Hill does not play.
The Rams do not have a scary matchup at all. The Dolphins allow 23.4 points per game but do not allow a lot of total yards. They will have a better matchup on the ground, with the Dolphins allowing 4.4 yards per attempt. Kyren Williams is one of the last workhorse running backs in the NFL. He averages 88% of snaps, 20.1 rushing attempts per game, and 3.1 targets per game. He should get over 20 carries and be the focal point.
Prediction
Over/Under
These teams average 36.8 combined points per game this season, but they are much better with their full complement of weapons. The oddsmakers think 49 is reasonable for this game, but I like the under. Under 49
Spread
The Dolphins must travel across the country and could be without their best receiver. I like the Rams and would consider betting them straight at -135 on DraftKings. Rams -2.5
Player Prop
I mentioned the production from Achane over the past two games as a pass catcher above, and I love that matchup in this game. The play becomes better if Tyreek Hill does not play, and it is a solid play if he does. De’Von Achane Over 45.5 Receiving Yards -120
