Dodgers vs. Yankees: Monday, October 28, 2024

DODGERS VS. METS: MONDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2024 — The biggest question for the Yankees is this: can they overcome the momentum the Dodgers got in Game 1? Los Angeles rode Freddie Freeman’s home run to a second straight win, and the Dodgers now have the same 2-0 lead they did on Oakland in the 1988 World Series.

Los Angeles won that series in five games, but all anyone remembers about that series is Kirk Gibson’s Game 1 home run. Almost nobody remembers that Los Angeles did lose Game 3, before turning around and clinching the series in the next two games.

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And based on the numbers, the Yankees have a good shot to repeat what the Athletics did in 1988. Clarke Schmidt has been a solid option for New York this season, while Walker Buehler hasn’t been anywhere close to as good as he was in past postseasons. Buehler has been very inconsistent, and his pattern suggests that he’s about to revert to his bad form.

If that occurs, New York has a big chance to get back into this series. But Buehler has been a big-game pitcher in his career, and if he’s got another in him, the Yankees could be in serious danger.

The Odds

First Pitch

When: Monday, October 28 at 8:08 p.m. EST

Where: Yankee Stadium, New York

Starting Pitchers: Walker Buehler, LAD (1-6, 5.38 ERA, 68 K’s) vs. Clarke Schmidt, NYY (5-5, 2.85 ERA, 93 K’s)

Public Bets: 76% on New York

Public Money: 54% on New York

Dodgers vs. Yankees In-Season Trends

If the Dodgers win this game, they’re likely to do so by two runs or more. Every win the Dodgers have had in this postseason has come by at least two runs, dating back to the start of the NLDS. Most times, the Dodgers have bunched their runs into games where the opponent wasn’t scoring: Los Angeles has won four games via shutout in this postseason.

After playing unders in the ALDS against Kansas City, the Yankees became an over team against Cleveland. So far, the pattern has not established in the World Series, except for New York’s lack of offense. The Dodgers hit the over on Freeman’s slam in Game 1, but the Yankees have just five runs in the series.

Players to Watch

Aaron Judge has to hit like Aaron Judge. He hasn’t come close to doing that in the first two games of this series, striking out six times without the home runs to make up for it. The Dodgers have to keep him off balance and keep him from getting comfortable.

Shohei Ohtani’s health is a key concern. The Dodgers’ star got hurt in Game 2, but he is back in the lineup for Game 3. He’s only DHing, so his health isn’t as big a factor as it would have been. But he’s still a big part of this lineup.

The Prediction

It comes down to whether or not the Dodgers can trust Buehler. Things get dicey for Los Angeles moving forward, as the Dodgers likely must rely on a bullpen effort in Game 4. The Yankees will also have to do the same, though, as Schmidt doesn’t usually go past four to five innings.

That means the over is probably in play, and much will come down to the starting pitching. With the Dodgers fouling off pitches left and right, it’s hard to fade them here.