Dodgers vs. Mets: Wednesday, October 16, 2024

DODGERS VS. METS: WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 16, 2024 — Can Walker Buehler rediscover his postseason success? If he can, the Dodgers’ starting pitching becomes far less of a liability in this series. If not, it’s going to be very difficult for the Dodgers to overcome the Mets.

Buehler has bounced between strong starts and disasters over the past few games, sandwiching a pair of one-run games around three games where he gave up a combined 15 earned runs. It’s clear that right now, he is not the same pitcher he was a couple years ago, even if he still has the talent in there somewhere.

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The Mets have seen much more consistency from Luis Severino, although that isn’t necessarily a good thing. Severino has been giving up three runs per night over his past five starts, which could be better but could be worse. This could be a result of three of his past five starts coming against the Phillies, with the other two coming against Atlanta and Milwaukee.

There are, of course, no easy games in the postseason, and Severino will have to be better to keep the Mets in the driver’s seat in this series. New York has the home field edge now, and the Mets have to keep the pressure on the Dodgers.

The Odds

First Pitch

When: Wednesday, October 16 at 8:08 p.m. EST

Where: Citi Field, New York

Starting Pitchers: Walker Buehler, LAD (1-6, 5.38 ERA, 64 K’s) vs. Luis Severino, NYM (11-7, 3.91 ERA, 161 K’s)

Public Bets: 58% on Los Angeles

Public Money: 61% on Los Angeles

Dodgers vs. Mets In-Season Trends

There’s really no point in backing either side on the money line. Every game both teams have played in the playoffs have been decided by at least two runs, as were all six games the teams played in the regular season. Both teams have issues with their pitching, and it’s tough to trust either one of them to shut down the other lineup once the bats get going.

However, the runs don’t come across the plate at Citi Field. Even though Dodger Stadium is much more of a pitcher’s park, Citi Field has been where the teams have struggled to score. In their past five meetings in New York, the under has cashed on four occasions.

Players to Watch

Eventually, Shohei Ohtani is going to get rolling. The Mets just have to do their best to make sure it doesn’t happen until they’ve put a chokehold on the series. Ohtani has been just kind of middling in the playoffs to date, and the Dodgers could really use him putting up some big numbers.

Pete Alonso has consistently contributed for the Mets, and New York needs that to continue. The Mets’ start to this game will be critical; they can’t let Buehler get himself settled in on the mound.

The Prediction

With Severino likely to allow three runs, it’s odd that the total is as low as it is. The pattern does have Buehler set to throw a gem after his ugly showing against San Diego last time, but it’s tough to trust him right now in a pressure spot. The Mets have the momentum after Mark Vientos’ grand slam, but they didn’t do much on offense outside of that one inning.

It feels more like the Mets stole that game than they found a weakness in the Dodgers. Until I see more, I still think Los Angeles is the better play.