Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Expert Pick and Prediction – May 1, 2024 

DODGERS VS. DIAMONDBACKS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – May 1, 2024 — Does anybody really want to win the NL West in 2024? Los Angeles usually laps the field in the West, but this year feels a little different. The Dodgers aren’t leading because of their supreme talent; they’re leading because nobody else in the West can play competent baseball.

Arizona has been a prime example. The Diamondbacks’ run to the World Series last year was a fluke, and everyone knew it. But there was some thought that Arizona could build off last season and start making a run to being a genuine contender. 

Related: MLB Power Rankings

That has not happened. The Diamondbacks seem to have their own division figured out, going 8-5 against the NL West. But they’re 6-12 against everyone else, which says that this division might be the NL’s weakest. The Dodgers have their usual strong record, but they’ve built it off weak opponents like Washington, Minnesota and San Francisco.

One thing Los Angeles does have in its favor is that Yoshinobu Yamamoto seems to thrive off being the enemy. In four starts at home, he’s 0-1 with a pedestrian 5.82 ERA. In two road starts, he’s yet to give up a run. Arizona counters with Jordan Montgomery, who was on the other side in the World Series last year for Texas. He’s making his first start at Chase Field since joining the Diamondbacks.

The Odds 

First Pitch

When: Wednesday, May 1 at 9:40 p.m. EST 

Where: Chase Field, Phoenix

Starting Pitchers: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, LAD (2-1, 3.54 ERA, 37 K’s) vs. Jordan Montgomery, ARI (1-1, 2.77 ERA, 7 K’s)

Public Bets: 75% on Los Angeles

Public Money: 98% on Los Angeles

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of May 1st, 2024

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks In-Season Trends 

The Dodgers have mostly been an over team this year, but the pitching is starting to get the idea. Los Angeles has played to the under in four of its past six games, and the Dodgers have also won four of their past six games.

But have they solved Arizona? Last year, that was a preposterous question to ask, given that Los Angeles went 8-5 against the Diamondbacks in the regular season and won the final five meetings before the playoffs. Then the postseason arrived, and the Diamondbacks slaughtered the Dodgers in three straight games.

Right now, Arizona doesn’t look capable of slaughtering anyone. The Diamondbacks haven’t won a series since April 14 against St. Louis.

Players to Watch

The fact that these totals aren’t higher is a testament to the pitching. These are the two highest-scoring teams in the majors, yet they played to the under last night in a 4-3 Arizona win. Ketel Marte is the Diamondbacks’ leading run scorer with 24 trips across the plate, and he’s hit safely in four of his past five games. If you’re looking for a run-scoring play, taking him to score at around even money makes sense.

Mookie Betts hasn’t yet hit this series, but that can’t be far off. He came in with 17 hits in his previous eight games, so this “slump” isn’t likely to last long. A two-hit game carries odds of +175.

The Pick 

One thing Yamamoto has consistently shown is excellent control. He’ll need it against Arizona, as the Diamondbacks rank fourth in walks and have the fourth-fewest strikeouts to their name. Yamamoto struggled early to adjust to MLB pitching, but his past few starts have been quite encouraging.

As long as Montgomery brings his best stuff to the table, runs should be at a premium in this matchup. Even with two strong offenses, the pitchers appear to have the edge here. So do the Dodgers.