Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers Expert Pick and Prediction – May 2, 2023 

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS VS. TEXAS RANGERS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – May 2, 2023 — Zac Gallen seems to be pitching for his contract, and the results have been pretty fantastic from Arizona’s standpoint. The Diamondbacks might have to pay drastically at the end of the season if Gallen keeps this up, but so far, he’s proving that last year’s run at the Cy Young was no fluke. 

Over his past 27 innings, Gallen hasn’t given up a single run, putting all four games in the win column. The Diamondbacks are riding a five-game win streak when Gallen pitches, and he’s been a big reason why Arizona actually looks like I could be a threat in the NL West this year. The Diamondbacks have turned in three straight losing campaigns, but they’re 16-13 so far and started the week in first place in the division. 

Texas has also been a pleasant surprise through the season’s first full month. The Rangers have cooled a bit since their hot start, but they still lead the AL West and hold the second-best run differential in the American League. With 178 runs to their name in 28 games, this Texas team can clearly score in bunches. But other than an April 9 win over the Chicago Cubs, they haven’t scored for Jon Gray. Gray’s seen his team drop three straight starts, despite taking a no-decision each time out. 

The Odds 

First Pitch 

When: Tuesday, May 2nd at 8:05 p.m. EDT 

Where: Globe Life Park, Arlington, Texas  

Starting Pitchers: Zac Gallen, ARI (4-1, 2.15 ERA, 51 K’s) vs. Jon Gray, TEX (1-1, 3.91 ERA, 17 K’s)  

Public Bets: 58% on Arizona 

Public Money: 53% on Texas 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of May 2nd, 2023 

Arizona vs. Texas In-Season Trends 

The Rangers are kind of a dichotomy because they’ve mostly been an OVER team despite strong pitching. Texas’ offense has made sure the Rangers have played OVER 17 times this season, the third-highest total in the American League. That fits well with the Diamondbacks, who have done most of their damage away from Phoenix. The OVER has cashed in five of six road games for Arizona, and it’s been very effective when the D-Backs have faced the AL West, hitting 15 times in their past 20 matchups with the division. 

Gallen has dominated his past four matchups, but it’s also wise to keep in mind who he was facing. None of the four teams Gallen faced rank in the top half of the league in scoring, and offenses don’t get much worse against starters than Miami and Kansas City. Gallen has pitched very well in those starts, but he only goes to around 95 pitches, which means the Rangers should have two to three innings against Arizona’s bullpen.  

The Diamondbacks have mostly gotten the matchups they wanted from the bullpen, but that’s not a guarantee against a Texas team that knows how to hit. If the Rangers have the game tied when Gallen exits, they have a huge advantage. 

Players to Watch 

At -225 to get a hit, there’s no value on Marcus Semien getting back into the hit column after two hitless games against New York. There is, however, genuine value in backing him to go over 1.5 total bases. In his past three games where he safely reached base, he went over 1.5 bases all three times, and 11 of his 30 hits have gone for extra bases. 

As for Gallen, there are three excellent options for pitching props. His play of 6.5 strikeouts is high, but he’s topped double digits in strikeouts in three of four games, and his other appearance at least got to seven. He’s also a great bet to get over 18.5 outs at +135, as he’s gone at least 19 outs in four straight starts and the Diamondbacks clearly don’t trust their bullpen. But the safest play is under 1.5 walks at -105. It’s not an exciting play, but it is likely to cash. Gallen has only given up five free passes in six starts this season. He clearly doesn’t struggle with control, and the Rangers are only middling in that area. 

The Pick 

Gallen’s the better starter, but it’s not by a lot, and eventually, Texas will figure out how to get a win out of Gray. The total is probably a little too low to touch either way, as both starters should be able to keep the scores down if they have their best stuff. But I trust Texas’ bullpen far more than I do Arizona’s, and I think the Rangers might win this late. If Semien can get a hit or two, that will really help Texas’ chances. 

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