DETROIT LIONS VS. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — January 18, 2025

DETROIT LIONS VS. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — January 18, 2025 — Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from the weekend slate features the Detroit Lions (15-2 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) hosting the Washington Commanders (13-5 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) in the divisional round of the playoffs.

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Saturday, January 18, 2025 @ 8:00 PM ET

Where: Ford Field, Detroit, MI

TV: FOX

Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders — How We Got Here & Betting Trends

Can Detroit Earn A Return Trip To The Conference Title Game?

Detroit entered its Week 18 matchup against the Minnesota Vikings with everything on the line. A win meant winning the division, finishing with the conference’s best record, and earning a bye week in the process. Conversely, a loss meant they’d start their playoff run on the road despite winning 14 games. The Lions led by a slim 10-6 lead at intermission but took control of the game in the second half, outscoring Minnesota by a 21-3 margin over the game’s final 30 minutes, including a 14-0 advantage in the final frame.

Jared Goff was decent, completing 27 of his 33 passing attempts. However, he had more interceptions (two) than touchdowns (one). Jahmry Gibbs accounted for 139 of the team’s 178 rushing yards on 23 carries. He finished with three touchdowns. Defensively, Detroit allowed only 262 yards and limited Minnesota to 3-for-13 on third down. The Lions are 11-2 in prime time under head coach Dan Campbell.

Additionally, David Montgomery returns to the mix from a knee injury that kept him sidelined for a month. The formidable duo of Gibbs and Montgomery averaged 138.5 rushing yards per game during the regular season. On the other hand, Washington was 30th in the league against the run, surrendering 137.5 yards per outing.

Can The Commanders Come Up Clutch Again?

Meanwhile, with a new general manager, head coach, and a rookie quarterback, the Commanders were expected to win around six games in 2024. But it appears Washington didn’t receive the memo, as the team finished 12-5 during the regular season. The joyride continued with a 23-20 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in last week’s wild-card round. The same Tampa squad that defeated Washington 37-20 earlier in the season. Jayden Daniels threw for 268 yards and two touchdowns. He is also the third rookie quarterback in the past three seasons to win a postseason game.

Even more impressive is the fact that this is the first playoff win for Washington since it defeated Tampa Bay 17-10 in the wild-card round back in 2006. In addition to riding the wave of a five-game winning streak, the Commanders are also on a five-game streak of winning on the final play from scrimmage, including the game-winning field goal against the Buccaneers last week.

Will Detroit’s high-powered offense run roughshod over its opponent, or will Washington’s Cinderella ride continue? Now that we have set the stage for this divisional round showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

Hey, make sure you check out our picks on the GW Daily Picks page.

Lions vs. Commanders Spread Analysis

Detroit opened as a 7.5-point favorite. However, at the of this writing, the line has moved to 9.5 points (per OddsShark.com). Here’s a look at how the teams have performed against the spread.

• The Lions are an impressive 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games.
• Detroit has covered the spread 16 times in its previous 24 home contests.
• In their last seven January matchups against Washington, the Lions are 6-1 against the spread.
• Meanwhile, the Commanders are 4-2 ATS in their previous six games.
• Washington is 2-3-1 ATS in its last six road contests.
• In their last five road outings against Detroit, the Commanders have failed to cover the spread each time.

Full disclosure: I’ve been riding with the Lions for a good chunk of the season. However, this Washington team deserves more credit than being close to a double-digit underdog. Given that only one of their five losses was by 10-plus points, I like their chances of covering the spread in this one.

Prediction: Washington Commanders (-9.5)

Lions vs. Commanders Over/Under Prediction

The oddsmakers expect a high-scoring contest in this matchup as the projected points total has risen from 49.5 points to 55.5 points (via OddsShark.com). Here’s why that estimate may be a bit generous.

• The total has gone UNDER eight times in the Lions’ last 12 matchups against Washington.
• The UNDER total has hit nine times in Detroit’s previous 12 Saturday outings.
• The total has gone UNDER four times in the Commanders’ last five road games.
• The UNDER total has prevailed six times in Washington’s previous seven January games.

Prediction: UNDER 55.5 points

Lions vs. Commanders Player Prop Bet

Coming off a regular season in which he threw for 4,629 yards — the third-highest passing total of his career — Jared Goff is the key player to watch for the home team in this matchup. He currently has -110 odds of exceeding 272.5 passing yards and -110 odds of finishing with less than 272.5 yards (via Bet365.com). Let’s see how his numbers stack up against the projected yards total.

• During the season, Goff averaged 272.3 yards per game.
• Goff has suited up in nine home games this season. In those contests, he averages 282.4 yards per outing.
• In 12 matchups against NFC teams, Goff is averaging 260.8 yards per game.
• Goff has averaged 329.4 yards per outing across his last five starts, exceeding the projected yards total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Jared Goff OVER 272.5 passing yards