DETROIT LIONS VS. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — November 17, 2024

DETROIT LIONS VS. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — November 17, 2024 — Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap this week features the Detroit Lions (8-1 SU, 5-1 ATS) hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8 SU, 1-5 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, November 17, 2024 @ 1:00 PM ET

Where: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan

TV: CBS

Detroit Lions vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Detroit Lions vs. Jacksonville Jaguars — In-Season Stats & Betting Trends

Following a 20-16 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2, the Lions have posted seven consecutive victories, including a 26-23 win over the Houston Texans in Week 10. But their latest triumph was by no means a pretty one. Jared Goff completed 15 of 30 passing attempts for 240 yards, with two touchdowns and a career-high five interceptions. This marked the first time Goff had thrown a pick in five games. Houston led  23-10 at the break. But despite the double-digit deficit and a subpar performance from its quarterback, Detroit scored 16 unanswered points and escaped with a three-point win thanks to a 52-yard field goal by Jake Bates as time expired. In addition to their seventh consecutive win overall, the Lions have produced victories in each of their last five road games and are 8-1 for the first time since 1954.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars have not had a great season by any means. Following a 32-16 victory over the New England Patriots on Oct. 20, Jacksonville has dropped three straight contests, including a 12-7 loss to the Minnesota Vikings last week. Mac Jones filled in for Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) and did not fare well, completing 14 of 22 passes for 111 yards and two interceptions. He averaged a paltry 3.3 yards per play and finished with a 38.3 passer rating. Additionally, Minnesota outgained Jacksonville in total yards by a 402-143 margin and held the ball for 42 minutes and 19 seconds. With Lawrence expected to sit out this game, look for the Jaguars to also struggle against the Lions.

Now that we have set the stage for this matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

Hey, make sure you check out our picks on the GW Daily Picks page.

Lions vs. Jaguars Spread Analysis

Riding the wave of a seven-game winning streak, Detroit enters this contest as a substantial 14-point favorite (per OddsShark.com). Here’s a look at how the teams have performed against the spread.

• The Lions are 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games.
• Detroit is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 November contests.
• In their previous six Sunday outings, the Lions are 5-1 against the spread.
• The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
• Jacksonville has covered the spread once in its previous five matchups against Detroit.
• In their last six November games, the Jaguars are 5-1 against the spread.

Prediction: Detroit Lions (-14)

Lions vs. Jaguars Over/Under Prediction

This matchup’s projected over/under total is 47 points (via OddsShark.com). Here are a few factors that suggest why going with the “over” is the intelligent choice.

• The total has gone OVER 13 times in the Lions’ last 19 games at Ford Field.
• The OVER total boasts a 5-1 record in Detroit’s previous six matchups against AFC South opponents.
• The total has gone OVER five times in the Jaguars’ last six outings.
• In Jacksonville’s previous five matchups against NFC North foes, the OVER total has cashed in four times.

Prediction: OVER 47 points

Lions vs. Jaguars Player Prop Bet

Despite throwing five picks against Houston, Jared Goff is the key player to watch for the home team. He currently has -120 odds of throwing for more than 221.5 yards and -110 odds of finishing with less than 221.5 yards (via DraftKings). Let’s see how his numbers stack up against the projected passing yards total.

• During the season, Goff is averaging 231.1 passing yards per game.
• In two career matchups against the Jaguars (2017 and 2022), Goff has thrown for 464 yards and three touchdowns, with a passer rating of 105.8.
• The Lions have played four home games this season. In those contests, Goff is averaging 225.3 yards per outing.
• In his last five starts, Goff has averaged 213.0 yards per contest, exceeding the projected yards total for this matchup three times during that stretch.

Prediction: Jared Goff OVER 221.5 passing yards