DETROIT LIONS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — October 20, 2024

DETROIT LIONS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — October 20, 2024 — Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap this week features the Detroit Lions (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) visiting the Minnesota Vikings (5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, October 20, 2024 @ 1:00 PM ET

Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN

TV: FOX

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings — In-Season Stats & Betting Trends

The Vikings enter this divisional tilt with a perfect 5-0 record coming off a bye week. This includes a 23-17 victory over the New York Jets in Week 5. In that contest, Sam Darnold had a pedestrian outing compared to how he had played in the team’s previous four games. He finished 14 of 31 for 179 yards, with no touchdowns and one interception. It was the first time this season that Darnold failed to record a touchdown while completing less than 60 percent of his passing attempts. Justin Jefferson led the receiving corps with six catches totaling 92 yards. Defensively, Minnesota allowed 254 yards, including 218 through the air. They held New York to 5-for-17 on third down while recording three sacks and three takeaways.

On the other side of this matchup, the Lions have produced four wins in their first five outings this season, including a 47-9 road win against the Dallas Cowboys last week. Jared Goff, who completed all 18 of his passing attempts in his previous outing against the Seattle Seahawks, finished 18 of 25 for 315 yards and three touchdowns, becoming just the second quarterback with a passer rating of at least 150 in back-to-back games. Drew Brees accomplished the feat back in 2018.

As good as Detroit’s offense was (492 yards), the defense was just as stout. This unit held Dallas to 251 yards of offense and a 23 percent third-down conversion rate. The Lions also recorded three sacks while forcing three interceptions. Unfortunately, Aiden Hutchinson suffered a leg injury that will keep him sidelined for four to six months — a tough blow for the Lions.

With both squads coming off solid defensive performances, this has the potential to be a low-scoring affair. Now that we have set the stage for this NFC North showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

Hey, make sure you check out our picks on the GW Daily Picks page.

The Spread

The Vikings opened as a 3.5-point underdog. However, the line has shifted, as the home team is now a one-point favorite (via OddsShark.com). Here’s a look at how both teams have performed against the spread.

• • The Vikings have covered the spread in each of their last five games.
  • Minnesota is 9-4 ATS in its previous 13 matchups against NFC opponents.
  • In their last seven Week 7 outings, the Vikings are 6-1 against the spread.
  • Meanwhile, the Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last seven contests.
  • Detroit has covered the spread seven times in its previous eight road outings.
  • The Lions are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against NFC teams.

Prediction: Detroit Lions (+1)

Over/Under

Despite the defenses allowing a combined 26 points in Week 6, the projected scoring total for this matchup is 50.5 points (via OddsShark.com). Here’s how both teams have fared against the over/under this season.

• The total has gone UNDER four times in the Vikings’ last five games.
• Conversely, the OVER total has prevailed in the previous five meetings between these franchises.
• The total has gone UNDER eight times in the Lions’ last 11 matchups against Minnesota.
• The OVER total holds a 6-3 record in Detroit’s previous nine road outings.

Prediction: UNDER 50.5 points

Player Prop Bet

Despite the subpar outing in the victory over the Jets, Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold is the key player to watch for the home team. He currently has -115 odds of throwing for more than 257.5 yards and -115 odds of finishing with less than 257.5 yards (via DraftKings). Here’s how his numbers stack up against the projected passing yards total.

• During the season, Darnold is averaging 222.2 yards per outing.
• In two career matchups against the Lions, Darnold has thrown for 448 yards with three touchdowns and one interception.
• The Vikings have played three of their five games at home. In those contests, Darnold is averaging just 209.3 yards per outing.
• Darnold has averaged 211.7 yards per game in his previous three starts, exceeding the passing yards total for this matchup once during that stretch.

Prediction: Sam Darnold UNDER 257.5 passing yards