DETROIT LIONS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — November 24, 2024

DETROIT LIONS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — November 24, 2024 — Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap this week features the Detroit Lions (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) visiting the Indianapolis Colts (5-6 SU, 8-3 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, November 24, 2024 @ 1:00 PM ET

Where: Lucas Oil  Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

TV: FOX

Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts — In-Season Stats & Betting Trends

The Colts were 4-6 through their first 10 games, but they snapped a three-game skid with a 28-27 win over the New York Jets in Week 11. Following a two-game benching, second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson returned under center and had a solid outing. He completed 20 of 30 passes for 272 yards and one touchdown. He also tacked on two rushing scores, including a 10-yard touchdown run that gave the Colts the lead late in the fourth quarter.

Without any timeouts, the Jets still had a chance to win. However, the Colts’ defense sacked Aaron Rodgers twice on the ensuing possession to help preserve the victory.

“I won’t say I was the most prepared or most confident,” Richardson said after the game via ESPN. “It was the most relaxed I’ve been. There really wasn’t any pressure on me. I was just out there taking it one play at a time. I just focused on my assignment. I wasn’t trying to press or do anything too much.”

Whether Richardson did enough to solidify himself as the long-term starter remains to be seen, but he did show that he can make plays when the game is on the line.

Lions Look To Continue Their Success Following 46-Point Win Over Jacksonville

On the other side of the matchup, the Lions are a force to be reckoned with. In addition to winning each of their last eight games, the Lions are coming off a 52-6 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. No. That is not a misprint. Following his five-interception performance against the Houston Texans in Week 10, Jared Goff returned to his efficient self, finishing 24 of 29 for 412 yards and four touchdowns. He also posted a perfect passer rating.

David Montgomery (75 yards on 15 carries) and Jahmyr Gibbs (11 rushes for yards) accounted for 144 of the team’s 196 rushing yards and produced three touchdowns between them. Additionally, Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 11 passes for 161 yards and two scores, while Jameson Williams amassed 124 reception yards on just four catches and one touchdown.

Detroit racked up 645 yards of offense while limiting Jacksonville to 170 yards. The 475-yard difference between the teams is the third-highest in league history. Furthermore, the Lions are 9-1 through their first 10 games for the first time since 1934 and are currently the odds-on-favorite to win it all following the Kansas City Chiefs’ first loss of the season.

Now that we have set the stage for this interconference showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

Hey, make sure you check out our picks on the GW Daily Picks page.

Lions at Colts Spread Analysis

Riding the wave of an eight-game winning streak, the Lions enter this contest as a 7.5-point favorite (per OddsShark.com). Here’s a look at how the teams have performed against the spread.

• The Colts are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games.
• Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its previous five outings at Lucas Oil Stadium.
• The Colts have covered the spread nine times in their last 11 matchups against NFC North opponents.
• The Lions are 7-1 ATS in their previous eight outings.
• Detroit is just 2-4 ATS in its last six matchups against Indy.
• In their last 13 November contests, the Lions are an impressive 10-3 against the spread.

Prediction: Detroit Lions (-7.5)

Lions at Colts Over/Under Prediction

This matchup’s projected over/under total is 50 points (via OddsShark.com). Here are a few factors that suggest why going with the “over” is the intelligent choice.

• The total has gone OVER four times in the Colts’ last five games against Detroit.
• The OVER total is 4-1 in Indy’s previous five Week 12 contests.
• Meanwhile, the total has gone OVER five times in the Lions’ last eight outings.
• The OVER total holds a 6-1 record in Detroit’s previous seven matchups against AFC South opponents.

Prediction: OVER 50 points

Lions at Colts Player Prop Bet

Jonathan Taylor is the key player to watch for the home team in this matchup. He currently has -115 odds of exceeding 71.5 rushing yards and -115 odds of finishing with less than 71.5 yards (via DraftKings). Let’s see how his numbers stack up against the projected yards total.

• During the season, Taylor is averaging 84.1 yards per game.
• Taylor has suited up in four home games this season. In those contests, he averages 90 yards per outing.
• In three matchups against NFC teams this season, Taylor is averaging 87 yards per game.
• Taylor has averaged 81 yards per outing across his last four starts, exceeding the projected yards total for this matchup twice during that stretch.

Prediction: Jonathan Taylor OVER 71.5 rushing yards