DETROIT LIONS AT HOUSTON TEXANS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — November 10, 2024

DETROIT LIONS AT HOUSTON TEXANS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — November 10, 2024 — Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap this week features the Detroit Lions (7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS) visiting the Houston Texans (6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, November 10, 2024 @ 8:20 PM ET

Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

TV: NBC

Detroit Lions at Houston Texans Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Detroit Lions at Houston Texans — In-Season Stats & Betting Trends

The Lions have won six straight games, including a 24-14 road win against the Green Bay Packers in Week 9. Going into that game, some analysts wondered how Detroit would fare in its first outdoor game of the season. Despite rainy and windy conditions, the Lions did just fine. At 7-1, they not only have the best record in their division but also the best record in the conference, leading the Washington Commanders by a half-game.

“We’re built for this, man,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said via ESPN. “Just because we play indoors, it doesn’t matter. We can play anywhere. We can play in the snow. We can play in the rain. We can play in the mud. That’s just us. We’re built to win.”

Jared Goff turned in another efficient performance, going 18 of 22 for 145 yards, with one touchdown and no interceptions. During the team’s six-game winning streak, the Lions have had more touchdowns (28) than incomplete passes (24), becoming the only team since 1940 to accomplish such a historic feat. However, it should also be noted that Detroit’s defense gave up 411 yards, and the game could have had a different outcome if the Packers had been more efficient in the red zone (one touchdown and two field goals in four trips).

Texans Hope To Bounce Back From Dismal Showing Against The Jets

On the other side of this matchup, the Texans are coming off a disappointing 21-13 loss against the New York Jets last week. In that game, C.J. Stroud finished 11 of 30 for 190 yards and was sacked eight times. To be objective, Stroud was without Stefon Diggs (out for the season) and Nico Collins. The good news is Collins is scheduled to return this week. Furthermore, although the Lions have rolled along rather nicely, they have given up over 400 yards of offense in their last two games. Can Houston produce enough plays to keep the game close, or will Detroit roll to its seventh straight victory?

Now that we have set the stage for this matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

Hey, make sure you check out our picks on the GW Daily Picks page.

Lions at Texans Spread Analysis

Thanks to two losses in their last three outings, the Texans enter this contest as a 3.5-point underdog (via OddsShark.com). Here’s a look at how both teams have performed against the spread.

• Houston is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.
• The Texans are 1-6 ATS in their previous seven November outings.
• In its last nine Week 10 matchups, Houston has covered the spread seven times.
• At the other end of the spectrum, Detroit is 6-0 ATS in its last six contests.
• The Lions have covered the spread in their previous seven outings.
• In its last nine matchups against AFC teams, Detroit is 8-1 against the spread.

Prediction: Detroit Lions (-3.5)

Lions at Texans Over/Under Prediction

The projected scoring total for this matchup is 49 points (via OddsShark.com). Here’s how both teams have fared against the over/under this season.

• The total has gone UNDER seven times in the Texans’ last eight games.
• The UNDER total is 9-2 in Houston’s previous 11 matchups against NFC opponents.
• In the Texans’ last five games against NFC North teams, the UNDER total has prevailed four times.
• The total has gone OVER four times in the Lions’ last five outings.
• The OVER total boasts a 5-0 record in Detroit’s previous five contests against AFC South opponents.
• In the Lions’ previous seven Week 10 games, the OVER total is 5-2.

Given that the Lions are averaging 32.3 PPG, Houston should be able to score enough points to help the teams exceed the projected over/under total for this game.

Prediction: OVER 49 points

Lions at Texans Player Prop Bet

Fresh off his 106-yard effort against the Jets last week, Joe Mixon is the key player to watch for the home team. He currently has -120 odds of rushing for more than 79.5 yards and -110 odds of finishing with less than 79.5 yards (via DraftKings). Here’s how his numbers stack up against the projected passing yards total.

• During the season, Mixon is averaging 101.5 yards per outing.
• In two career matchups against the Lions, Mixon has accumulated 106 yards and one touchdown.
• Mixon has suited up in two home games this season. In those contests, he is averaging 53.5 yards per outing.
• Across his last four starts, Mixon has averaged 106.3 yards per game, exceeding the yards total for this matchup every game during that stretch.

Prediction: Joe Mixon OVER 79.5 rushing yards