DETROIT LIONS AT DALLAS COWBOYS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — October 13, 2024

DETROIT LIONS AT DALLAS COWBOYS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — October 13, 2024 — Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap this week features the Detroit Lions (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) visiting the Dallas Cowboys (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, October 13, 2024 @ 4:25 PM ET

Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX

TV: FOX

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys — In-Season Stats & Betting Trends

Following consecutive home losses against the New Orleans Saints and the Baltimore Ravens, the Cowboys have bounced back with back-to-back road wins over the New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers. In the three-point win over the Steelers last week, Dallas trailed 17-13 with 4:56 remaining. But Prescott, who had been a mixed bag up to that point, guided Dallas on a 15-play, 70-yard drive that concluded with a touchdown pass to Jalen Tolbert with 20 seconds left to play. Prescott finished 29 of 42 for 352 yards, with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Dallas’s defense allowed just 226 total yards. The unit also held Pittsburgh to a 25 percent conversion rate on third down and generated three sacks.

Meanwhile, coming off a bye week, the Lions enter this matchup riding a two-game winning streak. This includes a 42-29 victory over the Seattle Seahawks in Week 4. Jared Goff completed all 18 of his passing attempts for 292 yards, with two TDs and no picks. Goff also recorded his first career receiving touchdown. On the other side of the ball, though, the Lions’ defense was an absolute train wreck. They gave up a whopping 516 yards, including 383 through the air. Furthermore, Seattle converted five of its 10 third downs and produced 133 rushing yards.

One significant trend to keep in mind about this matchup is the Lions have lost their previous five matchups against Dallas. Given that fact, they will need a much better defensive effort to end that skid. Now that we have set the stage for this NFC showdown let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

Hey, make sure you check out our picks on the GW Daily Picks page.

The Spread

The Cowboys opened as a one-point favorite. However, the line has shifted, as the home team is now a 3.5-point underdog (via OddsShark.com). Here’s a look at how both teams have performed against the spread.

• The Cowboys are 3-7 ATS in their past 10 games overall.
• Dallas has covered the spread only once in its previous five matches against NFC opponents.
• But in their last 14 October contests, the Cowboys are an impressive 12-2 against the spread.
• Meanwhile, the Lions are 5-1 ATS in their previous six games.
• Detroit has covered the spread six times in its last seven road outings.
• In their last five matchups against NFC squads, the Lions are 4-1 against the spread.

Prediction: Detroit Lions (-3.5)

Over/Under

This matchup’s projected scoring total opened at 50 points, but that line has risen to 52.5 (via OddsShark.com). Here are a few facts that suggest why going with the “over” is the intelligent choice.

• The total has gone OVER five times in the Cowboys’ last seven games.
• In Dallas’ previous 16 matchups against NFC North opponents, the OVER total has prevailed 12 times.
• The total has gone OVER nine times in the Lions’ previous 12 outings against NFC East teams.
• The OVER total is 8-3 in Detroit’s last 11 contests against Dallas.

Prediction: OVER 52.5 points

Player Prop Bet

On the heels of his second 350-yard game this season, Dak Prescott is the key player to watch for the Cowboys in this matchup. He currently has -115 odds of throwing for more than 283.5 yards and -115 odds of finishing with less than 283.5 yards (via DraftKings). Here’s how his numbers stack up against the projected passing yards total.

• During the season, Prescott is averaging 284.8 yards per outing.
• Prescott has been stellar in five career matchups against Detroit, averaging 292.5 yards per game. He has also thrown 11 touchdowns and just one interception, resulting in a 118.6 passer rating.
• The Cowboys have played two of their five games at home. He has scorched opposing defenses in those contests with 336 yards per outing.
• Prescott has averaged 317.3 yards per game in his previous three starts, exceeding the passing yards total for this matchup twice during that stretch.

Prediction: Dak Prescott OVER 283.5 passing yards