Denver Nuggets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Expert Pick – November 19, 2023

DENVER NUGGETS VS. CLEVELAND CAVALIERS EXPERT PICK – NOVEMBER 19, 2023 – Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekly NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

One of the games on Sunday’s slate features the Denver Nuggets (9-3) going on the road to face the Cleveland Cavaliers (6-6).

Here is a look at which of these teams has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, November 19, 2023 at 6:00 PM ET

Where: Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, Cleveland, OH

TV: BSOH and ALT

Denver Nuggets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Denver Nuggets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

The defending champion Denver Nuggets have hit a rough patch of late. They started the season with eight wins in their first nine outings. However, they have dropped two of their last three decisions. This includes a 115-110 loss to the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday night. Although they fought back from a 20-point deficit, they came up a bit short in the end.

Nikola Jokic was one of five players to score in double figures. He led the Nuggets with 26 points, 18 assists, and 16 rebounds. Christian Braun – who is averaging 8.7 PPG this season – contributed 25 points and nine rebounds off the bench.

The Cavaliers have had an up-and-down season thus far, and they were two games below .500 after their first 10 games (4-6). Fortunately, they have had some success as of late, posting wins in each of their last two outings.

This includes a 108-100 win over the Detroit Pistons on Friday night. Darius Garland paced Cleveland with 28 points, three rebounds, and three assists. Max Straus chipped in with 18 points, seven rebounds, four steals, and three assists.

The Nuggets boast the sixth-best defense in the association. That is the good news. The bad news is Jamal Murray is expected to be out for at least another two weeks due to a hamstring injury, which could be problematic.

Meanwhile, the Cavaliers will be without the services of Donovan Mitchell – who leads the team in scoring with 29.2 points per outing. Given this development, the Cavaliers will rely on Garland to step up during Mitchell’s absence.

“We know how important Darius is to us,” Cleveland coach J.B. Bickerstaff said, via CBS Sports. “He is the leader of this team, the ball is in his hands, and he has the keys. We need Darius to keep growing and keep leading this team.”

Garland has played in just seven of the 12 games for the Cavaliers this season. And he is second on the team in scoring at 18.7 points per contest.

The Picks

The Spread

The Nuggets opened as a 1.5-point favorite. That line has moved to 2.5. Despite their 1-4 record against the spread in their last five outings, here is a look at why going with them to cover is a smart play.

• The Nuggets are 4-2 ATS in their last six matchups against the Cavaliers.
• Denver is also 4-2 ATS in their last six road games against Cleveland.
• The Nuggets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight matchups against teams in the Central Division.
• The Cavaliers are a woeful 4-11 ATS in their last 15 outings.
• Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in their last six contests against teams in the Northwest Division.

Prediction: Denver Nuggets (-2.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total opened at and is currently 216.5 points. Here is a look at why the UNDER could be the smart bet.

• The UNDER total is 12-3 in the Nuggets’ last 15 outings.
• In Denver’s last eight road contests, the UNDER total prevailed each time.
• The UNDER has a 4-1 mark in the Nuggets’ last five November games.
• In the Cavaliers’ last 19 games, the UNDER total hit 13 times.

Prediction: UNDER 216.5 points

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch in this matchup is Michael Porter Jr.  He has -110 odds of scoring more than 17.5 points and -115 odds of scoring less than 17.5 points.

Porter is averaging 14.3 points per outing in seven games against the Cavaliers, which is a bit lower than the 17.5 total for this contest. What is encouraging is that his season average (16.4 PPG) is just slightly lower than the projected total. Not only that, but he has also scored at least 17 points in five of his last seven outings.

Given his recent body of work, I am going with the over for Porter.

Prediction: Michael Porter Jr. OVER 17.5 points