Dan’s Week 3 College Football Predictions – September 16, 2023

DAN’S WEEK 3 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS – SEPTEMBER 16, 2023 – My Week 2 college football predictions ended up with a 2-2 split, as Central Florida and Maryland messed around too long to earn a cover. Hopefully, as conference games get started, my Week 3 college football predictions lead to a more successful week.

We’ve learned a little about just about everyone, so there should be plenty of good bets available this week. Even if they aren’t all good games, I like what these bets can offer.

Related: NFL Fantasy Football Week 2 Sleepers

Florida State vs. Boston College (+26, 47.5), Saturday

It almost got really ugly for Boston College in Week 2, as the Eagles should have lost at home to FCS power Holy Cross. The Crusaders will likely earn a very high seed in the FCS playoffs, but the notion that a Patriot League team can beat an ACC school should be ridiculous.

Whatever BC’s doing isn’t working. Meanwhile, Florida State already smashed LSU and proved it wasn’t complacent by routing Southern Mississippi a week later. Boston College has already lost to Northern Illinois and needed to recover a fumble to thwart Holy Cross’ game-winning drive. The Seminoles might have 26 covered by halftime.

Pick: Florida State -26

Georgia Southern at Wisconsin (-19, 64), Saturday

Clay Helton’s Georgia Southern program is proving itself underrated again. Now at a school with realistic expectations, Helton is free to coach the way he knows best, and it’s working. The Eagles ripped through UAB and the Citadel, and they’ll now face a Wisconsin team that’s still a little overrated even after losing at Washington State.

Luke Fickell’s Badgers have proven slow starters this season, trailing Washington State by 15 and leading Buffalo by just four at the break. Georgia Southern tends to start quickly, averaging 26 first-half points per game to date. Both the full-game line and the first-half spread are highly tempting, as the first-half spread is about where the full-game spread should be. Given Wisconsin’s early struggles, the first half seems the better play.

Pick: Georgia Southern +11.5 1H 

Hawai’i at Oregon (-38, 69), Saturday

I’ve watched Hawai’i’s past two games. To stay with Oregon, you’ve got to be able to run the ball and keep the Ducks’ offense off the field. Hawai’i cannot do that. The Rainbow Warriors actually finished with negative rushing yardage against Stanford, and against Albany, they got stuffed twice on fourth-and-a foot in the fourth quarter.

The Ducks dropped 81 on Portland State in Week 1 and put up 38 on Texas Tech on the road last week. The spread’s too high for me to take for the entire game, as there’s the chance Oregon slacks off in the fourth quarter. Where I don’t expect the Ducks to coast is the final score. Oregon should have lots of opportunities to score on an outmatched Hawai’i. The Ducks should hit this high team total easily.

Pick: Oregon TTO 52.5

TCU at Houston (+7.5, 64.5), Saturday

What both schools have proven so far is that they both have a sorry defense. Nebraska might have set offense back half a century against Colorado last week, but the Huskers also sacked Shedeur Sanders seven times and held him in check for three quarters before running out of gas. TCU couldn’t come close to doing that, allowing the Buffaloes to look unstoppable on offense.

Houston did the same thing with J.T. Daniels and Rice. The Owls lit up the Cougars for 43 points to end a seven-year losing streak to Houston. Neither of these teams looks likely to stop the other; this is likely to be a battle of who has the ball last. And yet, the total’s at a reasonable 64.5, which could be hit by the end of the third quarter.

Pick: Over 64.5

Kansas at Nevada (+28, 58.5)

The biggest indictment of the Wolf Pack wasn’t the 33-6 scoreline against Idaho. It was that Idaho was actually favored and covered the spread. This will likely go no better. Nevada’s run defense gives up 6.3 yards per carry, fourth-worst in the nation.

To the Kansas ground game, that’s like waving Kansas City barbecue in front of a starving carnivore. The Jayhawks have rushed for 253.5 yards per game in their first two contests, and Nevada shouldn’t put up any more resistance than Illinois. If Idaho can go to Reno and win by 27, Kansas is more than capable of doing even more than that. This scoreline will be whatever the Jayhawks want it to be.

Pick: Kansas -28

Related: Kansas State vs. Missouri Expert Pick

Dan’s Picks

• Florida State -26

• Georgia Southern 1H +11.5

• Oregon TTO 52.5
  

• TCU-Houston Over 64.5

• Kansas -28