Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Expert Pick – June 25, 2023

DALLAS WINGS VS. LOS ANGELES SPARKS EXPERT PICK – JUNE 25, 2023 – Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekend WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. We have three games on tap for today. After my earlier look at the Sky vs. Sun and Mystics vs. Liberty, the last matchup on Sunday’s slate includes the Dallas Wings (6-7) taking on the Los Angeles Sparks (6-7).

Here is a look at which team has the edge in this matchup and why.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Sunday, June 25, 2023 at 3:00 PM ET

Where: Crypot.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA

TV: ABC

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of June 25, 2023

Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks – Season Trends

The Dallas Wings began the season with five wins in their first eight games. Unfortunately, this team’s trajectory has been going south ever since. They have dropped four of their last five games, including a 76-74 defeat against the Los Angeles Sparks on Friday night. That loss had to hurt a bit, considering that Dallas lead by as many as 17 points. Natasha Cloud paced the team’s scoring attack with 23 points and 12 rebounds. Arike Ogunbowale contributed 16 points, five rebounds, and four assists in a losing effort.

Although the Wings are amid a slump, they can score with the best of them. Their 84.6 points per contest is ranked third in the league and they also have the fourth-best offensive rating as well. The narrative isn’t overly positive for this ball club when it comes to playing defense, though. Dallas is ranked ninth in scoring defense (allowing 84.8 PPG) and seventh in defensive rating – allowing 104.4 points per 100 possessions.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Sparks have dropped three of their previous five games and they have not won consecutive games in three weeks. With that in mind, they are hoping to change that trend as they look to knock off the Wings for a second straight time.

Los Angeles is a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of offense. The team is ranked seventh in both scoring and efficiency. From a defensive standpoint, though, the Sparks have the fourth-best scoring defense (allowing 78.2 PPG) and they have the fourth-best defensive rating (98.6 points per 100 possessions).

Here are my betting trends for this contest.

The Picks

The Spread

The Dallas Wings are a three-point favorite in this contest. Considering they were up by 17 points in the previous encounter between these two teams, I understand the rationale behind this spread. Here is a look at why I am going with the Wings to cover.

• Dallas is 7-3-1 against the spread in the last 11 games they have played on a Sunday.
• The Wings are 6-2 ATS in the last eight road games they have played against Los Angeles.
• In the previous 18 meetings between these teams, Dallas has a 12-5-1 record against the spread.
• Lastly, the Wings are an impressive 36-14-2 ATS in the last 52 meetings between these two teams.

Prediction: Dallas Wings (-2.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total is 160.5 points. Here are a few trends that suggest why going with the UNDER is a smart move.

Dallas and Los Angeles have faced each other twice this season. The combined totals for those two contests were 140, and 150 points, respectively.

The UNDER is 4-1 for Dallas in its last five games following an SU loss.

The UNDER total has prevailed in Dallas’ last five games against Western Conference opponents.

In the Wings’ last nine contests, the UNDER has hit seven times.

The UNDER is a perfect 5-0 for Los Angeles in its last five games overall, and 4-0 against Western Conference teams.

The UNDER total has hit in each of the Sparks’ last five home games.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five games for Los Angeles when the team is playing on one day of rest.

Prediction: UNDER 160.5 points

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch in this contest is Los Angeles Sparks forward Nneka Ogwumike. She currently has +100 odds of scoring more than 22.5 points and -130 odds of scoring less than 22.5 points.

Ogwumike is averaging 19.7 points per contest, which is tied for a career-high. While this is impressive, it does not surpass the projected scoring total for this matchup.

Additionally, Ogwumike has exceeded the 22.5 points total only twice this season. For these reasons, I am going with the UNDER here.

Prediction: Nneka Ogwumike UNDER 22.5 points