Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces Expert Pick – September 26, 2023

DALLAS WINGS VS. LAS VEGAS ACES EXPERT PICK – SEPTEMBER 26, 2023 – Hello basketball fans. Welcome back to our WNBA playoffs coverage here at Godzilla Wins. After our early look at the Sun vs. Liberty, the other Tuesday night game features the No. 4 seed Dallas Wings taking on the No. 1 seed Las Vegas Aces.

Let us look at which team has the edge heading into this matchup and why.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Tuesday, September 26, 2023 at 10:00 PM ET

 Where: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV

 TV: ESPN

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

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Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas – Series Recap And Betting Trends

These teams met four times during the regular season. The first two contests were competitive. Las Vegas won both of those games by seven and two points, respectively.

In the next two outings, though, the Aces won both of those games by double-digit margins, sweeping the season series 4-0.

The Las Vegas Aces continued their dominance against the Dallas Wings in the series opener. While they led by a slim 49-45 margin going into intermission, they outscored the Wings 26-12 in the third quarter, thus putting the game out of reach. As a result, Las Vegas came away with a 97-83 victory. Las Vegas Aces head coach, Becky Hammon, offered this assessment about the game-changing third quarter.

“Shots are going to go in, not go in,” said Aces coach Becky Hammon via ESPN. “Nobody’s out there trying to miss. Sometimes you can help that part of the game. But you can always be on defensively with effort, and focus. That third quarter, I’d love to bottle that up.”

A’ja Wilson paced Las Vegas at both ends of the floor with 34 points, eight rebounds, four blocks, and two steals.

Kelsey Plum also chipped in with 25 points, five rebounds, and four assists.

The Wings bench did outscore the Aces’ second unit by a 27-4 margin. But getting the road split they need will be difficult to accomplish if Wilson and Plum keep putting up huge numbers.

The Picks

The Spread

Following their 14-point win over the Wings in Game 1, the Aces are 10.5-point favorites to win Game 2. Here is a look at why picking the defending champs to cover is the smart play.

• The Wings are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on one day of rest.
• Dallas is 1-5 ATS in its last six contests against Western Conference teams.
• The defending champs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
• Las Vegas is 5-1 ATS in their last six contests following a straight-up win.
• The Aces are 9-3 in their last 12 games against Western Conference teams.
• Las Vegas is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 outings against teams that have a winning record.

Prediction: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this contest is 175.5 points. Let us look at the trends that suggest why going with the OVER is the way to go.

• The two teams have eclipsed the 175.5 points predicted for this contest in each of the last three games they have played against each other, including the series opener.
• The OVER is 4-0 for Dallas in their last four games that were played on a Tuesday.
• The OVER has hit for the Wings nine times in their last 10 games that were played on one day of rest.
• The OVER is an impressive 6-1 for Dallas in its last seven contests following an ATS loss.
• The OVER is 8-3 for the Wings in their last 11 road games.
• The OVER total is a perfect 4-0 for Las Vegas in its last four matchups against Western Conference teams.
• The OVER has prevailed five times in the Aces’ last seven games that were played on a Tuesday.
• The OVER is 4-1 for Las Vegas in the last five times the team has played on one day of rest.
• The OVER boasts an impressive 19-7 record in the last 26 meetings between these two teams.

 Prediction: Under 175.5 points

Player Prop Bets

My first key player to watch is A’ja Wilson – the player who has won the Defensive Player of the Year award in the last two seasons. She currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 24.5 points and -115 odds of scoring less than 24.5 points.

Wilson averaged 22.8 points per contest during the regular season, but her production has increased during the postseason. Through three playoff games, she is averaging 28.7 points per outing. Additionally, she has scored 23 or more points in seven of her last 10 outings. With that in mind, I expect that trend to continue in Game 2.

My other key player to watch is Wings guard Arike Ogunbowale. She currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 20.5 points and -125 odds of scoring less than 20.5 points.

Ogunbowale averaged 21.2 points per contest during the regular season, which is a smidge higher than her projected total for Game 2. However, she is averaging 18.7 points through three playoff games. Furthermore, in the four games she has played against the Aces this season, she is averaging just 14.8 points per outing. Taking that into consideration, I am going with the under for Ogunbowale.

Predictions: A’ja Wilson OVER 24.5 points

                         Arike Ogunbowale UNDER 20.5 points