DALLAS WINGS VS. CONNECTICUT SUN EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — August 16, 2024

DALLAS WINGS VS. CONNECTICUT SUN PICK AND PREDICTIONS — August 16, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from Friday’s slate features the Dallas Wings (6-19 SU, 8-17 ATS) hosting the Connecticut Sun (18-6 SU, 10-14 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Friday, August 16, 2024 @ 9:30 PM ET

Where: College Park Center, Arlington, TX

TV: ION

Dallas Wings vs. Connecticut Sun Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Dallas Wings vs. Connecticut Sun – In-Season Stats & Betting Trends

Remember when the Wings were 3-2 through their first five games? Following that start, Dallas dropped each of its next 11 games. And after snapping that 11-game skid, the Wings are just 2-6 in their last eight outings.

Heading into the month-long break, they snapped a three-game losing streak with a 101-93 win over the Indiana Fever. In that contest, all five of the starters reached double figures.  Odyssey Sims finished with 24 points and nine rebounds on 10-of-17 shooting from the field and 3-of-7 from beyond the arc. Arike Ogunbowale also scored 24 points, collected seven rebounds, and tallied seven assists.

Indiana tied the game at 93 following a three-point basket from Kelsey Mitchell. However, Dallas closed the evening with an 8-0 run to earn its sixth win of the season.

On the other side of the spectrum, the Sun got off to a blazing start, posting 13 wins in their first 14 contests. However, they have cooled off, going 5-5 across their last 10 games. This includes an 82-74 loss against the New York Liberty on July 16.  Four of the team’s starters scored in double figures in that game. Brionna Jones led the way with 17 points, five rebounds, and three steals.

Alyssa Thomas — who finished runner-up in last season’s  MVP voting — added 16 points, eight rebounds, five assists, and four rebounds. The Sun battled back from an early nine-point deficit, and the teams were tied going into the final period. Unfortunately, New York outscored Connecticut by a 19-11 margin to win the game. Connecticut’s 2-of-18 shooting from 3-point range certainly did not help its cause against a short-handed Liberty squad.

Now that we have set the stage for this matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

The Spread

The Wings opened as a 6.5-point underdog, but the line has dropped slightly to 5.5 points at the time of this writing (per OddsShark.com). Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Wings are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games.
• In its last 10 home games, Dallas is 2-8 against the spread.
• Meanwhile, the Sun are 15-8 ATS in their last 23 matchups against Dallas.
• Connecticut is 6-2 ATS in its last eight road games against the Wings.

Prediction: Connecticut Sun (-5.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 156 points (per OddsShark.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the intelligent choice.

• The total has gone UNDER 14 times in the Wings’ last 21 games against Connecticut.
• The UNDER total is 7-2 in Dallas’s last nine home outings against the Sun.
• The total has gone UNDER eight times in the Sun’s last nine matchups against Western Conference opponents.
• The UNDER total has cashed in seven times in Connecticut’s last eight outings against teams with a losing record.

Prediction: UNDER 156 points

Player Prop Bet

Arike Ogunbowale leads Dallas in scoring, assists, and steals. Given that fact, she is the key player to watch for the home team. She currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 21.5 points and -120 odds of finishing with less than 21.5 points (via DraftKings.com).

Here is a look at how her numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• During the season, Ogunbowale has been putting up 22.3 points per game.
• In the previous two matchups against Connecticut this season, Ogunbowale has averaged 16.0 points and six assists on slash lines of .278/.286/.889.
• Ogunbowale has played against Eastern Conference teams 10 times this season, averaging 21.9 points per outing in those contests.
• In 11 home games, the Dallas Wings guard averages 23.2 points per game.
• Over her last 10 outings, Ogunbowale has averaged 19.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch.

Prediction: Arike Ogunbowale OVER 21.5 points