Dallas Wings vs. Chicago Sky Expert Pick

DALLAS WINGS VS. CHICAGO SKY EXPERT PICK – Greetings basketball. For those of you keeping tabs on the NBA playoffs, you already know that the Boston Celtics have erased an 0-3 deficit, forcing a Game 7 on Monday night. Whether you are loving this or dreading it, we have a few WNBA games to keep an eye on between now and then.

Our featured game from Sunday’s slate of games is the Dallas Wings (2-0) taking on the Chicago Sky (2-1). Can the Sky get back into the win column or will the Wings extend their winning streak to three games? 

Here is a look at which team has the edge and why. 

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Sunday, May 28, 2023 at 6:00 PM ET

Where: Wintrust Arena, Chicago, IL

TV: BSSWX and MARQ

Public Money: Sky, 70%

Public Bets: Sky,60%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 28, 2023

Dallas Wings vs. Chicago Sky Season Trends

The Wings kicked off their season with an 85-78 win over the Atlanta Dream on May 20. Arike Ogunbowale led Dallas with a game-high of 27 points to go along with four rebounds and three steals. Satou Sabally contributed 25 points, seven rebounds, three assists, and two steals. Natasha – who the team acquired in a trade back in January – chipped in with 20 points, 10 boards, three steals, and two blocks.

Dallas’ defense held Atlanta to 35.4 percent shooting from the field and 28.1 percent from beyond the arc.

In the team’s second win of the season – a 95-91 victory over the Seattle Storm – the offense looked sharp once again. Ogunbowale finished with 26 points and six assists. Sabally put together a double-double that included 17 points and 10 rebounds. As a result, Dallas is 2-0 for the first time since 2007. 

Meanwhile, the Sky got off to a hot start this season, recording wins against the Minnesota Lynx and Phoenix Mercury.

Unfortunately, Chicago’s hot start came to an end at the hands of the Washington Mystics. The sky battled back from deficits of 53-37 and 60-53. But their rally fell short thanks to a late 3-point shot by Elena Delle Donne, enabling Washington to come away with a 71-69 victory.

Marina Mabrey scored a team-high 19 points, grabbed four rebounds, and handed out four assists. Courtney Williams and Kahleah Copper added 13 and 12 points, respectively. 

Dallas’ Offense vs. Chicago’s Defense

Despite their 2-0 start, the Wings are not that good from a defensive standpoint. In fact, out of the 12 teams in the WNBA, they are ranked 11th in scoring defense (84.5 points per game) and they have the fourth-worst defensive rating. 

But on offense, it is a totally different story. Dallas has the second-best scoring offense in the association (90.5 points per contest), and they have the third-best offensive rating.

Dallas also makes the grade from an efficiency standpoint as they are ranked third in overall shooting (43.2 percent) and sixth in 3-point shooting (32.7). Simply put, when this team gets going, they are a difficult matchup for the opposition.

Conversely, the Sky have the second-worst scoring offense (73.7 points per outing) and the third-worst offensive rating. However, the narrative is noticeably different at the defensive end of the court.

Chicago is holding opponents to 68.7 points per game, which is tops in the league. The Sky have the second-best defensive rating, allowing 86.6 points per 100 possessions. But the story does not end there. Chicago is allowing just 22.7 made field goals per contest (1st). The opponents are shooting 36.8 percent from the field (1st). Furthermore, Chicago is holding teams to six made 3-point field goals per contest (3rd) and they are limiting opponents to 31.6 percent shooting from the 3-point line (6th). 

Here are my betting picks for this matchup.

The Picks

Over/Under

The O/U opened at 162.5 points. The line has slightly moved to 162 points. 

There are compelling stats for both sides of the argument. 

The UNDER has prevailed in four of the last five times for Dallas when playing on the road against Chicago. 

The UNDER has a 9-1 record in Chicago’s last 10 games overall. 

The UNDER has hit four times in the Sky’s last five games when they are playing at home against Dallas. 

The OVER total has hit in each of Dallas’ last five games that were played on a Sunday.

In the Wings’ last five games, the OVER is 4-1 when the team plays on one day of rest. And the OVER is also 4-1 in Dallas’ last five road games. 

The OVER has prevailed eight times in Dallas’ last 11 games against teams with an overall winning record. Chicago is 2-1.

The OVER has hit 16 of the last 23 meetings between these two ball clubs. 

The two teams are averaging a combined 163.7 points per contest. That said, I am going with the OVER in this matchup

Prediction: OVER 162 points 

The Spread

Chicago opened as a consensus 3.5-point favorite. That line has moved to (-2).

Here are some noteworthy trends that suggest why going with Dallas to cover the spread is a good play. 

Chicago has a 2-4 mark against the spread in the last six times in it played against Dallas. 

The Sky are just 1-5 ATS in the last six instances in which they were playing against Dallas at home. 

Dallas is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games. 

The Wings are 4-2 ATS in the last six times they have played against the Sky.

Dallas is 5-1 ATS in the last six games in which it was playing against Chicago on the road. 

Prediction: Dallas (+2)