Dallas Stars vs. Edmonton Oilers Pick and Prediction – May 27, 2024

DALLAS STARS VS. EDMONTON OILERS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – May 27, 2024 — On one hand, the Oilers seem to have this series where they want it. Getting out of Dallas with a split was what they wanted, and now they’ll get to play on home ice.

But Dallas has been outstanding away from home this postseason. The Stars’ 57 points away from home in the regular season led the NHL, and they’ve gone 5-1 on the road in the playoffs. Edmonton’s certainly thrilled to be home, but this series is far from being in a good spot for the Oilers.

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To make home ice matter, Edmonton has to use its matchup advantage. The Oilers get second line change, which they’ll need to use to force Dallas to take penalties. The Stars have done a masterful job avoiding the box to this point, giving away just three power plays this series. As a result, Edmonton hasn’t scored on the power play in four of its past five games.

On the other side of the coin, the Oil haven’t given up a power play goal in their past six contests. But Dallas isn’t as dependent on the power play as Edmonton is. The Stars know they’re better at 5-on-5 hockey, and they’re perfectly fine to play that way. The Oilers have to find a way to change up this series.

The Odds

Puck Drop

When: Monday, May 27 at 8:30 p.m. EST

Where: Rogers Place, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of May 27th, 2024

Dallas Stars vs. Edmonton Oilers In-Season Trends

The Stars have gotten outstanding goaltending night after night from Jake Oettinger. He has started every game in the postseason, and he’s been dynamite on the road. In six starts away from Texas, Oettinger hasn’t given up more than two goals even once. His only loss came in Game 6 against Vegas, and that wasn’t on him — the Stars just never scored that night.

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It’s now been six straight games without an over cashing for Edmonton. That’s a rarity for a team that’s built around offense. The Oilers have played mostly free-wheeling hockey when they can, but they cannot do that in this series. Vancouver and Dallas have both shown that Edmonton isn’t going to get away with playing the way it wants here. The Oilers have to show they can keep winning lower-scoring games.

Players to Watch

Getting Jamie Benn back to himself was big for Dallas in Game 2. The captain isn’t quite as explosive as he once was, but he’s still a reliable scorer who usually comes up big when needed. He notched a goal and an assist in the win in Game 2, and having him at his best makes the Stars even more dangerous.

Edmonton got nothing out of Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl in Game 2, and that obviously cannot continue if the Oilers are going to survive this series. The Oilers are too dependent on their top two scorers to have both of them go cold.

The Pick

Dallas has dominated on the road, and it’s likely to continue to control the pace of play. As long as the Stars aren’t taking penalties, it’s unlikely that the Oilers are going to get back on top in this series.

The Stars trust their goaltender and don’t feel the need to take penalties very often. That’s made this task very difficult for the Oilers, and that’s likely to haunt Edmonton again. Dallas should have the edge here.