Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Expert Pick And Predictions – May 30, 2024

DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES EXPERT PICKS AND PREDICTIONS—MAY 30, 2024—Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoff coverage here at Godzilla Wins. The lone game on tap for Thursday night features the Dallas Mavericks (61-36 SU, 58-40 ATS) taking on the Minnesota Timberwolves (64-32 SU, 49-47-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Thursday, May 30, 2024 @ 8:30 PM ET

Where: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN

TV: TNT

Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – Series Recap & Betting Trends

Can Karl-Anthony Towns Provide Minnesota With Another Solid Performance?

Although they were facing a 0-3 deficit, the Timberwolves have been in this situation before. Well, to some extent. In the previous round, they trailed 3-2 against the defending champions before rallying to win Games 6 and 7 of that series. However, being down 0-3 to a Mavericks team that had won five straight games felt a bit different.

But with their backs against the wall and their season on the line, Minnesota FINALLY broke into the win column with a 105-100 victory, trimming the series deficit to 3-1. Following his 26-9-9 outing in Game 3, Anthony Edwards followed that up with 26 points, 10 rebounds, and nine assists in the team’s Game 4 victory. Being the superstar of the team, his production has become somewhat expected.

The one ingredient that had been missing was Karl-Anthony Towns, who had not played well on any level in this series through the first three games. He was shooting 28 percent from the field and 13.7 percent from beyond the arc. Fortunately for the Timberwolves, the narrative was completely different in Game 4.

KAT scored 25 points, including 20 in the second half, on 9-for-13 shooting from the floor. Additionally, he knocked down four of his five attempts from 3-point range, which is significant because he only had three shots from long range in Games 1-3.

Here is his assessment of his mindset in Game 4, via ESPN:

“Being aggressive,” Towns said. “Ain’t no time to have any doubts in your mind, especially at this time, it’s Game 4, down 3-0. Ain’t no time to have any doubts.”

All three games have been close in the waning moments. Although Towns did foul out, his production is a big reason why Minnesota lives to fight another day. If he can replicate that effort, perhaps the Timberwolves can make things interesting in Game 5 as well.

Can The Mavs Close Out The Confident Timberwolves In Five?

The Mavericks had all the momentum going into the potential closeout game against Minnesota. In addition to the five-game winning streak, they were also the better team down the stretch over the past two games.

They overcame a double-digit deficit in the first half of Game 2 en route to winning that contest 109-108. In Game 3, Dallas outscored Minnesota by a 14-3 margin over the game’s final five minutes to claim a 116-107 victory.

Timberwolves Learn From Previous Miscues

A similar scenario unfolded in Game 4, as the Timberwolves led by five points at the 5:04 mark in the fourth quarter. This time, there would be no meltdown, and there would be no late-game blunders that would allow the Mavericks to close out the series as the home fans had hoped. Nope. Instead, it was the Timberwolves that made the key plays down the stretch, forcing a Game 5 back on their home floor on Thursday night.

Luka Doncic — who had played extremely well in this series despite an assortment of injuries — produced his sixth triple-double of these playoffs, finishing with 28 points, 15 rebounds, and 10 assists. But the Mavs do-it-all point guard was just 7-for-21 from the field and 4-for-11 from deep.

Kyrie Irving — who was coming off a 33-point performance in Game 3, scored 16 points on 6-for-18 shooting while missing five of his six attempts from the 3-point line. Through the first three games of this series, the Mavericks duo of Doncic and Irving outplayed the Timberwolves’ tandem of Edwards and Towns. In this contest, though, Minnesota’s star players outscored their counterparts 54-44 while outshooting them 71.4 percent to 33.3 percent.

Yep, the Mavericks still hold a commanding 3-1 series lead. Yep, they have history on their side, as teams that go up 3-0 in a playoff series are 155-0. However, the Timberwolves believed their season was not going to end with a sweep. And based on what we saw in Game 4, it is feasible that this team could pull out another win in Game 5 as well.

Now that we have set the table for this matchup let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

The Spread

After getting their first win in the series, the Timberwolves are a 4.5-point favorite (per OddShark). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Mavericks are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games.
• Dallas is 5-2 ATS in their last seven matchups against Minnesota.
• The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road contests.
• In their last five road matchups against Minnesota, the Mavericks are 4-1 against the spread.
• Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
• Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games against Dallas.
• In their last six contests against Southwest Division opponents, the Timberwolves are 1-6 against the spread.

I strongly believe the Timberwolves can get another win, but the margin will be a bit closer than the five-point margin from Game 4.

Prediction: Dallas Mavericks (+4.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup is 209.5 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice.

• The OVER total is 4-1 in the Mavericks’ last five games.
• The OVER total has prevailed four times in Dallas’s last six May games.
• The total has gone OVER six times in the Timberwolves’ last nine outings.
• In Minnesota’s last 18 games against Western Conference teams, the OVER total cashed in 12 times.

Prediction: OVER 209.5 points

Player Prop Bet

Karl-Anthony Towns had his best performance of the series in Game 4. If Minnesota has any hopes of extending the series, they will need another big-time game from KAT. With that in mind, he is the key player to watch in this contest. He currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 19.5 points and +100 odds of finishing with less than 19.5 points.

Do Towns’ numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out.

• Towns is averaging 21.1 points per contest during the regular season and playoffs.
• In eight games against the Mavericks this season, he has averaged 19.3 points per contest.
• During the postseason, Towns is averaging 18.5 points per outing.
• KAT has suited up against Western Conference teams 54 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 19.7 points per outing.
• In 21 matchups against Southwest Division opponents, Minnesota’s big man is averaging 19.6 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Towns has averaged 18.0 points and 9.0 rebounds per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Karl-Anthony Towns OVER 19.5 points