Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics Expert Pick And Predictions – June 17, 2024

DALLAS MAVERICKS AT BOSTON CELTICS EXPERT PICKS AND PREDICTIONS—JUNE 17, 2024—Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoff coverage here at Godzilla Wins. Tonight, the Boston Celtics (79-21 SU, 50-44-6 ATS)  will host the Dallas Mavericks (63-40 SU, 60-42-1 ATS)  in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. Will the Celtics clinch their 18th title, or will the Mavericks extend the series to a sixth game?

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Monday, June 17, 2024 @ 8:30 PM ET

Where: TD Garden, Boston, MA

TV: ABC

Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics – Series Recap & Betting Trends

What Went Right For The Mavericks In Game 4?

Facing an 0-3 hole and on the verge of having their season conclude with a sweep, the Mavericks stepped up big time. Leading by a 26-point cushion at the break, Dallas did not take its foot off the pedal. Thanks to a 15-7 run early in the third period, the home team led by a whopping 34 points (76-42). The game was anticlimactic at that point, as both teams pulled their starters off the floor.

Luka Doncic led the Mavericks’ scoring onslaught with 29 points, five rebounds, five assists, and three steals on 12-for-26 shooting from the floor and 0-for-8 from distance.

Kyrie Irving chipped in with 21 points, six assists, and four rebounds, connecting on 10 of his 18 attempts overall while going 1-for-6 from 3-point range.

“I think the most important thing is to show that we believe,” Doncic said after the game. “I think we showed in Game 4. If not, if we wouldn’t believe, we probably wouldn’t have won that game. So, I think, obviously the talk is easy to talk about it, but then showing it is another thing.”

Boston outshot Dallas by 14 percent (50.5 percent to 36.3 percent). For the first time this series, the Celtics outscored the Celtics from the 3-point line, albeit by a slim 45-42 margin. The Mavericks won the battle of the boards by a 52-31 margin,  which led to a 60-26 advantage in points in the paint. Simply put, the Mavericks thoroughly outplayed their opponent and will live to fight another day.

Make no mistake, the Mavericks still have their work cut out for them, as no team has overcome a 3-0 series lead in 156 tries. However, they have taken the first step in the process. That, and the fact they are playing with house money, will make it difficult for the Celtics to finish the job in Game 5.

What Went Wrong For The Celtics In Game 4?

In taking a 3-0 lead in this NBA  Finals series, the Celtics had reeled off 10 straight victories. Not only that, but they were also a perfect 7-0 away from TD Garden, and they appeared to have taken the Mavericks’ best shot after nearly giving back a 21-point lead in the fourth quarter of Game 3.

Unfortunately, that was not the case.

The Celtics had a chance to close out the series with a sweep in Game 4, but they ran into an avalanche of sorts. In addition to what was mentioned about everything that went right for the Mavericks, Boston’s tandem of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown had their worst games of the series, collectively speaking. Tatum finished with 15 points on 4-for-10 shooting from the field and 1-for-4 from deep. Meanwhile, Brown — who was shooting 55 percent from the floor prior to Game 4 — shot 3-for-12 from the field and missed four of his five attempts from beyond the arc.

“I think we maybe put too much pressure on ourselves at that moment to be perfect or think it was going to go how we wanted it to go,” Tatum said of why the Celtics failed to seal the deal on Friday. “Joe did a great job of reminding us that it’s OK to smile during wars. It’s OK to have fun during high-pressure moments. That’s what makes our team unique and special.”

True, the Celtics have proven to be the deepest team in the postseason. And it is no accident they are up in this series. However, they cannot afford to give life to a Mavericks team that is confident in its chances of winning this series moving forward.

Now that we have set the table for this Game 5 matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

The Spread

Despite their 38-point setback in Game 4, the Celtics opened as a 7.5-point favorite. At the time of this writing, though, the line has moved to 6.5 points for the home team (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Mavericks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games against Boston.
• Dallas is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven road contests.
• The Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last five Monday night games.
• In its last nine games as the favorite, Boston is just 2-6-1 against the spread.

While I believe the Celtics should win Game 5, Dallas’s performance last game suggests that the margin of victory will be less than the 6.5-point spread suggests.

Prediction: Dallas Mavericks (+6.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 209 points, but the line recently moved to 210.5 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice.

• In the Mavericks’ last six contests, the UNDER is 5-1.
• The UNDER total is 6-0 in Dallas’s last six matchups against Eastern Conference opponents.
• In the Mavericks’ last seven June games, the UNDER total holds a 6-1 record.
• The UNDER total has come out on top in each of the Celtics’ last five outings.
• The total has gone UNDER six times in Boston’s last seven contests against Dallas.

Prediction: UNDER 210.5 points

Player Prop Bet

After averaging 24.3 PPG in Games 1-3, Jaylen Brown scored just 10 points in Game 4, and the Celtics need him to bounce back in a big way. With that in mind, Brown is the key player to watch for the Cs. He currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 25.5 points and -125 odds of finishing with less than 25.5 points

Do Brown’s numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out.

• Brown is averaging 23.2 points per contest across 88 regular season and playoff games.
• In six games against Dallas this season, he has averaged 23.7 points per contest.
• During the postseason, Brown is averaging 24.1 points per outing.
• Brown is averaging 22.9 points per outing in 31 matchups against Western Conference opponents.
• In 13 matchups against teams in the Southwest Division, the Celtics guard is averaging 21.8 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Brown has averaged 24.0 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch

Prediction: Jaylen Brown OVER 25.5 points