Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics Expert Pick And Predictions – June 9, 2024

DALLAS MAVERICKS AT BOSTON CELTICS EXPERT PICKS AND PREDICTIONS—JUNE 9, 2024—Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoff coverage here at Godzilla Wins. The Boston Celtics (77-20 SU, 49-43-5 ATS) will host the Dallas Mavericks (62-38 SU, 59-41 ATS) in Game 2 of the NBA Finals on Sunday night. Will the Celtics roll to another victory, or will the Mavericks even the series at 1-1?

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, June 9, 2024 @ 8:00 PM ET

Where: TD Garden, Boston, MA

TV: ABC

Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics – Series Recap & Betting Trends

What Went Wrong For The Mavericks In The Series Opener?

The Mavericks are in the NBA Finals for the first time since their last title run in 2011. Dallas has won each of its playoff series despite not having home-court advantage. This included a 4-1 series win over a Minnesota Timberwolves team that looked completely overmatched.

Despite their success, though, the Celtics are going to be the most complete team the Mavericks have faced in these playoffs. In the series opener, Boston struck first, with a 107-89 victory to take a 1-0 lead in the series. Luka Doncic scored a team-high 30 points and grabbed 10 rebounds.

Although Doncic put together another solid performance, Dallas was noticeably missing a few things. First, let’s start with Kyrie Irving. The guy regarded as a player with the best handles in the league averaged 27 points per contest in the Western Conference Finals. But in the series opener, he produced just 12 points on 6-for-19 shooting from the field and 0-for-5 from beyond the arc. The Mavericks are 40-16 when Irving scores 20 or more points this season. You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to understand that Dallas is a far better team when Irving scores at least 20 points on any given night.

Next, the one number I purposely left out from  Doncic’s stat line was his assist total. The Mavericks’ do-it-all guard had just one assist. Prior to this contest, his lowest assist total in any playoff game this season was five,  which occurred twice in the series against Minnesota and once against the OKC  Thunder. Additionally, the Mavericks had only five assists as a team through the first three quarters and finished with just nine dimes on their 35 made field goals. To put this stat in its proper perspective, the Celtics had as many blocks as the Mavericks had assists. Simply put, the Mavericks must be better at moving the basketball in Game 2.

What Went Right For The Celtics In Game 1?

The Celtics finished with the best record in the league during the regular season, and they have been just as dominant during the postseason. Just two years removed from its last finals appearance, Boston came into the series opener with a 12-2 mark in the playoffs, including a sweep over the Indiana Pacers in the first conference finals. It is worth noting that the two games the Celtics lost were at TD Garden.  They dropped a pair of Game 2s against the Miami Heat and the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Unfortunately for Dallas, the Celtics were clicking on all cylinders in Game 1. They raced out to a 37-20 lead after the first quarter and led by as many as 29 points in the first half before settling for a 21-point advantage at the break. The home team let down its guard a bit in the third quarter as the Mavericks trimmed the deficit to eight points (72-64). Boston responded with a 14-0 run and took a 20-point cushion into the final frame en route to a 107-89 victory.

The Celtics placed a total of SIX players in double figures. Jaylen Brown led the way with a solid effort at both ends of the floor. He finished with 22 points on 7-for-12 shooting to go along with six rebounds. He also tallied three steals and three blocks.

Jayson Tatum did not have a great shooting night (6-for-16 overall), but he finished with a double-double that included 16 points, 11 rebounds, and five assists. Derrick White contributed 15 points and five assists, while Jrue Holiday added 12 points, eight boards, and five assists.

The story of the evening, however, was Kristaps Porzingis. He had missed the team’s last 10 games over a 38-day period due to a strained calf injury. It would have been reasonable to question how effective he could be following an extended layoff. As it turned out, the lengthy absence was a moot point, as he scored 20 points off the bench (including 18 in the first half). He shot 8-for-13 from the floor while knocking down two of his four attempts from 3-point range. He also grabbed six rebounds and blocked three shots.

In addition to the balanced scoring and Porzingis’ production, there was also a noticeable disparity in three-point shooting. Not only did the Celtics outscore the Mavericks by 27 points from the 3-point line, but they also shot the long ball at a more efficient clip—38.1 percent compared to 25.9 percent. If the Cs can continue to create looks from deep and shoot the long ball at an efficient rate, they will be difficult to beat in this series.

Now that we have set the table for this matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

The Spread

Following their 18-point victory in Game 1, the Celtics are a seven-point favorite heading into Game 2 (per OddShark). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Mavericks are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
• Dallas is 0-5 ATS in their last five matchups against Boston.
• The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six road contests.
• In its last 20 contests against Atlantic Division opponents, Dallas is just 7-13 against the spread.
• The Celtics are 2-5 ATS in their last seven outings.
• Boston is 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine matchups against Western Conference teams.
• In their last six games against Southwest Division opponents, the Celtics are 5-1 against the spread.
• The Celtics have won all three meetings against the Mavericks this season, with an average victory margin of 18.3 points per game.

Prediction: Boston Celtics (-7)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup is 214.5 points (per BleacherNation.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone OVER five times in the Mavericks’ last seven games.
• The OVER total has prevailed four times in Dallas’s last six Sunday games.
• The total has gone OVER five times in the Celtics’ last seven contests.
• Dallas and Boston average a combined 238.5 points per outing, which is a whopping 24 points higher than the 214.5 total.
• These teams’ opponents average 224.8 points per game, which is 10.3 points more than the over/under for this matchup.

Prediction: OVER 214.5 points

Player Prop Bet

Doncic did his part in the series opener, but his backcourt mate had a subpar outing. If the Mavericks have any shot at winning Game 2, Kyrie Irving must have a larger impact on the game, thus making him the key player to watch in this matchup. He currently has -112 odds of scoring more than 22.5 points and -108 odds of finishing with less than 22.5 points.

Do Irving’s numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out.

• Irving is averaging 24.8 points per contest during the regular season and playoffs.
• In three games against the Celtics this season, he has averaged 18.0 points per contest.
• During the postseason, Irving is averaging 22.2 points per outing.
• Irving has suited up against Eastern Conference teams 24 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 24.3 points per outing.
• In 11 matchups against Atlantic Division opponents, the Mavericks guard is averaging 24.5 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Irving has averaged 21.2 points and 4.8 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup three times during that stretch.

Prediction: Kyrie Irving OVER 22.5 points