Cowboys vs. Commanders Expert Pick – January 7, 2024

COWBOYS VS. COMMANDERS EXPERT PICK – January 7, 2024 — The Cowboys could secure the two-seed with a victory on the road against the Commanders. The Cowboys could still get the second seed if the Eagles and Lions lose their games. The Cowboys could drop to a fifth seed with a loss and an Eagles’ victory because they would come in second in the division.

The Commanders are not in playoff contention, but they would love to make the Cowboys have to travel in the playoffs.

Related: Nate’s Week 18 NFL Predictions

The Cowboys could drop to a fifth seed with a loss and an Eagles’ victory because they would come in second in the division. The Commanders are not in playoff contention, but they would love to make the Cowboys have to travel in the playoffs.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Sunday, January 7 at 4:25 p.m. EST

Where: FedEx Field, Landover

TV: FOX

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of January 7th, 2024.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys beat the Lions last week, 20 to 19. It is unclear if the Cowboys are resting starters, but they have not indicated that they would, and this is a must-win game. They could rest some of their players if the game becomes a blowout in their favor.

Defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins (knee/ankle) is questionable, with defensive end Dorance Armstrong (ankle). Left guard Tyler Smith (foot) has not practiced all week and is questionable.

Washington Commanders

The Commanders lost to the 49ers last week, 27 to 10. It was their seventh consecutive loss. Defensive tackle Jonathan Allen (knee) is out, along with cornerbacks Kendall Fuller (knee), Tariq Castro-Fields (shoulder), and Christian Holmes (concussion). Safety Kam Curl (quad), defensive end Casey Toohill (shoulder), and tackle Andrew Wylie (elbow) are listed as questionable.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders Head-To-Head

These teams faced off in a week 12 Thanksgiving game in Dallas. The Cowboys beat them 45 to 10 with a 25-point fourth quarter. Tony Pollard had one of his better games of the season.

He finished with 13 carries for 79 yards and a touchdown, with six receptions on six targets for 24 yards. He averages four yards per carry this season but averaged 6.1 in that game, which was his highest this season. DaRon Bland had a 63-yard interception return late in that game, which was the only interception Sam Howell threw.

The Commanders’ secondary is awful and has been all season. They allow 259.2 passing yards and the league-worst 30 points per game. They have struggled to create turnovers, and their offense rarely does them any favors.

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The Commanders have the worst turnover differential in the league (-12) and only have seven interceptions this season. The Cowboys have a +8 differential, with the second-fewest giveaways this season.

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The Cowboys’ defense is the anchor of this team and is a big reason that the offense is successful. They limit opponents to 19.1 points and are fifth in passing yards (190.9) per game. Micah Parson has 13 sacks this season and maintains pressure on the quarterback. The Commanders and Sam Howell do not have the answers to solve this defense. Curtis Samuel performed well in the first matchup with nine catches for 100 yards, but they likely cannot score enough points to compete with the Cowboys.

Prediction

Over/Under

The total is 46.5 on DraftKings, with the over juiced to -115. I would take the under, but I must mention that things could get weird if the Cowboys start pulling starters.

Spread

The Cowboys are 13-point favorites on the road. They were 13.5-point favorites in their first matchup at home. I like the Cowboys -13 in this game and would assume they rest more players on offense than defense if they pull out to a nice lead.

Player Prop

Terry McLaurin was quiet in their first matchup but has been much more involved recently. He had 11 targets in their first matchup but only caught four. He should make more plays this time, and I would take over 57.5 yards.