Connecticut vs. Iowa Expert Pick and Prediction – April 5, 2024 

CONNECTICUT VS. IOWA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – April 5, 2024 — It’s going to be a late night for the stars in Cleveland, as Caitlin Clark vs. Paige Bueckers draws the second game of the day at the women’s Final Four. That could be a problem for Sunday’s final, but for now, it’s going to be an interesting nightcap to see which star can lead her team into the title game.

For both, the pressure is high. Clark badly wants to cap her college career with a national title and wants it even more after falling one game shy of the crown last season. This year’s team isn’t as talented as last year’s, but Clark is a year better, and with her, Iowa has a chance to compete with anyone.

Related: Women’s Basketball Betting Boom

The same holds on the other side for the Huskies. Iowa’s been on a mission this year, but the Hawkeyes are a relative newcomer as a women’s basketball power. Not so for Connecticut, which was original royalty along with Tennessee. The Huskies are back in the Final Four after their streak ended at 14 last year, but they haven’t won the title since 2016. Of course, almost every other fan base in America would take that and be quite happy, but no other program has a coach who’s over 1,000 games above .500 for his career.

But this Connecticut program isn’t close to Geno Auriemma’s best teams. The Huskies are still here because of Bueckers, Auriemma and a lot of grit. They barely have enough bodies to get through a game, but they’re still here. And with Auriemma unlikely to follow the same gameplan LSU tried, this could be a different story.

The Odds 

Tipoff 

When: Friday, April 5 at 9 p.m. EST 

Where: Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, Cleveland

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable 

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 31st, 2024

Connecticut vs. Iowa In-Season Trends 

Outscore or gum up? Those are the two ways that teams have tried to deal with Iowa this year, and they’ve been met with varying levels of success. Three years ago, Connecticut went with outscore because it could and Clark wasn’t really yet what she would become. The Huskies boatraced the Hawkeyes 92-72, even with Clark getting 21 points.

This UConn team might go for the gum up strategy that Indiana executed and West Virginia almost pulled off. However, there are multiple blueprints for how to do that. The Hoosiers went at Clark and forced her away from her shooting spots, while the Mountaineers let Clark have her points but cut off her passing lanes.

Related: NC State vs. South Carolina Pick and Prediction

Connecticut regularly holds teams to low totals, but it opted to cut off the other three USC starters when facing JuJu Watkins and McKenzie Forbes. The Huskies might allow Clark to get her points and try to win a scoring contest.

There’s no guesswork with Iowa; it’s going to try to score. The Hawkeyes are basically the antithesis of the school’s football team: the women’s basketball team usually gets in three games what the football team gets all year. West Virginia’s the only team in the past 10 to hold Iowa under 89 points.

The Difference-Makers 

Iowa coach Lisa Bluder said she doesn’t want this game to be Caitlin Clark vs. Paige Bueckers. Her request isn’t going to be granted, and she knows it. Both of these transcendent talents can take over the game at any point, and both have shown it in this tournament. Whoever has the better game will put their team in the driver’s seat.

The Pick 

Can the Huskies hold on against the Hawkeyes’ speed and Clark’s shooting? Auriemma isn’t the best coach in the game for nothing, and he’s likely to come up with a different strategy to slow Clark down.

Nothing has worked yet, and Connecticut hasn’t exactly handled this round very well lately. Since winning the title in 2016, Auriemma and the Huskies are just 1-4 SU in the Final Four. And I don’t think they’re healthy enough to hang with the Hawkeyes.