CONNECTICUT SUN VS.  NEW YORK LIBERTY EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — July 10, 2024

CONNECTICUT SUN VS. NEW YORK LIBERTY EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — July 10, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from Wednesday’s slate features the Connecticut Sun (17-4 SU, 9-12 ATS) hosting the New York Liberty (17-5 SU, 8-14 ATS) in a battle between the top two teams  in the association.

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, July 10, 2024 @ 11:00 AM ET

Where: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT

TV: NBC-BOS, WWOR, and Liberty Live

Connecticut Sun vs. New York Liberty Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty – In-Season Stats & Betting Trends

The Liberty Looking To Bounce Back From Disappointing Loss To Indiana

The Liberty have been one of the top teams in the league all season. Following a 4-2 start, they reeled off eight straight wins before their next loss. Following that 99-93 setback against the Phoenix Mercury on June 18, New York won each of its next five games.

However, the Liberty were recently defeated by the Indiana Fever 83-78 on Saturday, bringing another impressive winning streak to a halt. In that contest, Sabrina Ionescu led the way with 22 points, four assists, and three rebounds. But her shooting numbers were not overly efficient as she was 9-of-23 from the field and 4-of-13 from beyond the arc.

Betnijah Laney-Hamilton added 20 points (8-14 FG and 4-10 3PT), four rebounds, and four assists. New York held a 62-55 advantage through three quarters of action but fell apart in the final frame. Thanks to a three-point play by Caitlin Clark and a three-pointer by Kelsey Mitchell, Indiana tied the game at 75 with 2:31 left in regulation. New York was held to just three points the rest of the way.

The Sun Looking To Push Their Winning Streak To Four Games

Meanwhile, the Sun got off to a fast start as well, starting the season with a 9-0 mark en route to producing 13 wins in their first 14 outings. Following that hot start, Connecticut dropped three of their next four contests before rebounding with three consecutive wins. This includes an 80-67 win over the Atlanta Dream on Sunday.

In that game, DeWanna Bonner paced the team’s offense with 23 points on 7-of-11 shooting from the floor. She also had four rebounds and knocked down seven of her nine attempts from 3-point  range.

Tiffany Mitchell — who is averaging 5.0 PPG — chipped in with 13 points and three rebounds off the bench. Brionna Jones added 11 points, four rebounds, and three assists. Connecticut held Atlanta to just 24 points in the first half. And while their defense slipped a bit in the second half, the Sun were able to notch their seventh win in their last 10 games.

New York beat Connecticut 82-75 when these teams faced off on June 8. With that in mind, the Sun look to even the season series when these squads clash for the second time this season.

Now that we have set the stage for this pivotal Eastern Conference matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

The Spread

The Liberty opened as a slight 1.5-point favorite, but the line has moved to three points at the time of this writing (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Sun failed to cover the spread six times in their last eight outings.
• Connecticut is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.
• Meanwhile, the Liberty are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
• In its last seven road matchups, New York is 5-2 against the spread.

Prediction: New York Liberty (-3)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 157.5 points (per BleacherNation.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone OVER four times in the Sun’s last five matchups against New York.
• In the Liberty’s last five “road” contests against Connecticut, the OVER total prevailed all five times.
• The teams average a combined 166.6 points per game, which is 9.1 points higher than the game’s over/under total.

Prediction: OVER 157.5 points

Player Prop Bet

Following an outing in which she scored a team-high 23 points and posted a career-high for made 3-pointers in a game, DeWanna Bonner is my key player to watch in this matchup. She currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 17.5 points and -125 odds of finishing with less than 17.5 points (via DraftKings).

Here is a look at how her numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• On the season, Bonner is putting up 16.9 points per contest.
• In the previous matchup against New York this season, Bonner scored 16 points on 4-of-14 shooting overall and 2-of-6 from deep.
• Bonner has played against Eastern Conference teams 12 times this season, averaging 19.4 points per outing in those contests.
• In 11 home contests, the Connecticut Sun forward is averaging 18.3 points per game.
• Over her last five outings, Bonner has averaged 18.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup three times during that stretch.

Prediction: DeWanna Bonner OVER 17.5 points