CONNECTICUT SUN VS. MINNESOTA LYNX EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — October 4, 2024

CONNECTICUT SUN VS. MINNESOTA LYNX EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — October 4, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from Friday’s slate features the Connecticut Sun (31-13 SU, 20-23-1 ATS) hosting the Minnesota Lynx (34-11 SU, 28-16-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Friday, October 4, 2024 @ 7:30 PM ET

Where: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT

TV: ESPN2

Connecticut Sun vs. Minnesota Lynx Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Connecticut Sun vs. Minnesota Lynx — Postseason Stats & Betting Trends

The Sun and Lynx finished the regular season with the second and third-best records, respectively. Connecticut had the league’s top-rated defense, while Minnesota was ranked second. Given that fact, it was reasonable to presume that a playoff matchup between these two squads would make for good television. And through the first two games, the series has lived up to expectations.

The Sun landed the first punch with a 73-70 victory in the series opener. Trailing by five points heading into the final frame, Connecticut outscored Minnesota 16-8 in the final 10 minutes while holding them to 4-for-18 shooting. The defensive prowess of both teams was on full display once again in Game 2.

For the second straight game, neither side reached the 80-point plateau. This time around, Minnesota’s defense rose to the occasion, limiting the Sun to 36.4 percent shooting overall and just 5-for-20 from beyond the arc.

Another noteworthy trend from Minnesota’s Game 2 victory is that Napheesa Collier was held to nine points on 3-for-14 shooting. After putting up 40 points per game, with a 64 percent conversion rate in the first round, she’s averaging 14 points per outing on 10-for-30 shooting from the floor in this series.

With the venue shifting to Connecticut for the next two games, will defense continue to be the calling card, or will we see an offensive explosion?

Now that we have set the stage for this matchup let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

The Spread

The Sun opened as a 1.5-point favorite. However, that line has recently moved to 2.5 points (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Sun are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 outings following a straight-up loss.
• Connecticut is 3-1-1 ATS in its previous five contests played on two days of rest.
• The Sun has covered the spread four times in their last five semi-final matchups.
• Meanwhile, the Lynx are 13-6-1 in their last 20 games overall.
• Minnesota has covered the spread 12 times in its last 16 contests following a straight-up win.
• In their previous five road games, the Lynx are 4-1 against the spread.

Prediction: Connecticut Sun (-2.5)

Over/Under

This matchup’s projected over/under total opened at 151.5 points (via OddsShark.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the intelligent choice.

• The total has gone UNDER 18 times in the Sun’s last 26 matchups against Western Conference opponents.
• The UNDER total is 11-3-1 in Connecticut’s last 15 games played on two days of rest.
• In the  Sun’s previous 12 games, the UNDER total has cashed in nine times (9-2-1).
• The total has gone UNDER six times in the Lynx’s last seven Friday night contests.
• The UNDER total is 5-2 in Minnesota’s last seven games following an ATS victory.
• In the Lynx’s previous seven matchups against Eastern Conference teams, the UNDER total has prevailed five times.

Prediction: UNDER 151.5 points

Player Prop Bet

Following her 18-10-7 performance in Game 2, Alyssa Thomas is the key player to watch for the home team. She currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 14.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 14.5 points (via Bet365.com).

Here is a look at how her numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• During the postseason, Thomas is putting up 16.5 points per game.
• Through the first two games of this semi-final series, Thomas has averaged 17.5 points per contest on 57.7 percent shooting from the field.
• The Sun have played two home games in the postseason. Thomas is averaging 15.5 points per outing in those contests.
• Over her last five outings, Thomas has averaged 15.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 9.8 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup three times during that stretch.

Prediction: Alyssa Thomas OVER 14.5 points